ECB's Legarde: Higher energy costs will push up input prices
The ECB is navigating a complex landscape where rising energy costs are exerting upward pressure on inflation while simultaneously posing risks to economic growth. Per the full note from Greg Michalowski, ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted that increased energy prices could lead to higher input costs, which may subsequently be passed on to consumers. This dynamic is reflected in market expectations, with traders pricing in three potential rate hikes by 2026, the first of which could occur as early as June. The desk believes that the ECB's cautious approach, coupled with the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, will keep the central bank in a delicate balancing act between controlling inflation and supporting growth.
What the desk is arguing
The ECB faces a challenging environment where escalating energy costs are likely to drive inflation higher, complicating its monetary policy decisions. Per the full note source, Lagarde's comments underscore the potential for input price increases to be passed to consumers, which could reinforce inflationary pressures.
Market participants are currently anticipating three rate hikes by 2026, with the first possibly arriving in June, reflecting a significant shift in sentiment driven by the energy price shock. The ECB's main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, with a deposit facility rate of 2.0%, indicating a cautious stance as policymakers assess the implications of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on inflation and growth.
The alternative read would suggest that if energy prices stabilize or decline, the ECB might delay rate hikes, but the current trajectory of inflation expectations leans heavily towards tightening monetary policy.
Key takeaways
- 01Rising energy costs are expected to push up input prices, impacting consumer inflation.
- 02Market pricing indicates three ECB rate hikes by 2026, with the first potentially in June.
- 03The ECB's cautious approach reflects uncertainty from geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.
- 04Inflation projections have been revised upward, with headline inflation averaging 2.6% in 2026.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the EUR/USD pair closely, particularly as we approach the June ECB meeting, which could serve as a pivotal moment for rate expectations. A break above 1.10 could signal increased confidence in the ECB's tightening path.
ECBs Legarde is speaking and says: climbing energy costs will push up input prices. Price increases may then be passed to consumer. We should be well-placed to react, when needed Current rates: The ECB at their last meeting last week held rates unchanged, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility at 2.0%, as policymakers adopted a cautious stance to assess the impact of the Iran/Middle East war on inflation and growth Key driver of uncertainty: The war in the Middle East has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks to economic growth, with a material near-term impact through higher energy prices.
Market pricing for the next move: Markets are fully pricing in three ECB rate hikes in 2026, with the first potentially arriving as early as June — a notable shift driven by the energy price shock. Commentary has been more hawkish ECB's own stance: The ECB is following a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no pre-commitment to a particular rate path. Its decisions will be based on the inflation outlook, incoming data, underlying inflation dynamics, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
Inflation outlook: In the ECB's March baseline projections, headline inflation is seen averaging 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028 — revised up compared to December, largely because energy prices will be higher due to the Middle East conflict. Growth: Staff expect economic growth to average 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028 — a downward revision reflecting the global effects of the war on commodity markets, real incomes, and confidence. In short, the ECB is in a tricky spot: energy-driven inflation is pushing market expectations toward hikes, while growth risks pull the other way.
The June meeting will be closely watched, especially with new staff projections expected. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Sources & References
How we cover this story