How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
Rate hikes by year-end RBA: 40 bps (97% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) 2027: 58 bps BoE: 38 bps (65% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) 2027: 103 bps ECB: 35 bps (57% probability of no change at the next meeting) 2027: 83 bps BoC: 34 bps (58% probability
GBP/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Rabobank | Bearish | 1.3300 |
ING | Neutral | 1.3500 |
MUFG | Bullish | 1.4000 |
All 20 desk targets for GBP/USD
Desk synthesis pending
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Cross-firm research
GBP/USD Consensus Check: 1.35 Target, 1.26 Spread — Week of Nov 7, 2026
Cable sits 1.09% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.26-point dispersion that reflects sharply divided BoE-vs-Fed rate paths.
GBP/USD Consensus Check: 1.35 Target, 0.26 Spread — Week of Nov 6, 2026
Cable trades at 1.3396, roughly 0.77% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.26-point dispersion that reflects deep disagreement on the BoE-Fed rate path.
Bank of England raised rates to 4.00% — Sterling navigates a split MPC and murky growth signals
On 2026-11-04, the Bank of England raised its policy rate to 4.00% from 3.75%. Here is where the major banks now see the currency heading.