How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
Rate hikes by year-end RBA: 40 bps (97% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) 2027: 58 bps BoE: 38 bps (65% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) 2027: 103 bps ECB: 35 bps (57% probability of no change at the next meeting) 2027: 83 bps BoC: 34 bps (58% probability
GBP/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
BNP Paribas | Neutral | 1.3500 |
UBS | Bullish | 1.5000 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.3700 |
All 20 desk targets for GBP/USD
Desk synthesis pending
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Cross-firm research
GBP/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.3394, Median Target 1.36 — Week of September 20, 2026
Cable trades 1.51% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.36, with a 0.26-point spread from Citi's 1.24 floor to UBS's 1.50 ceiling.
GBP/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.3394, Median Target 1.36 — Week of September 19, 2026
Cable trades 1.51% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.36, with a 0.26-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the BoE-Fed divergence trade.
GBP/USD Consensus Sits at 1.36 — Cable Trades 1.51% Below Target
Spot GBP/USD at 1.3394 sits 1.51% below the 20-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.36, with a 0.26-figure dispersion that reflects genuine disagreement on BoE vs Fed sequencing.