Ida Wolden Bache: The conduct of monetary policy
The desk interprets Governor Ida Wolden Bache's recent remarks on monetary policy as a signal of Norges Bank's commitment to maintaining a cautious yet proactive approach to interest rates. Per the full note source, Bache emphasized the importance of flexibility in policy adjustments, reflecting a nuanced understanding of current economic conditions. This perspective aligns with our view that the NOK will remain stable against major currencies in the near term as the central bank navigates inflationary pressures. The consensus target for the NOK/USD pair is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12, indicating a balanced outlook among analysts.
What the desk is arguing
Governor Bache's prepared remarks at the parliamentary hearing were a standard review of financial market developments, with no shift in the monetary policy stance. The statement reaffirms Norges Bank's wait-and-see approach, consistent with its March decision to hold the policy rate at 4.50%.
The absence of hawkish or dovish surprises in the testimony suggests the central bank remains comfortable with current market pricing. This supports our view that NOK will trade range-bound against EUR until clearer domestic inflation or global risk signals emerge.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/NOK is 11.20 by end-2026, with a 12-month range of 10.85-11.55. Governor Bache's neutral commentary aligns with our baseline expectation for a protracted hold, but the lack of pushback against rate cut expectations may add modest downside risk near term.
Morgan Stanley holds an aligned view, forecasting EUR/NOK at 11.00 for Jun-26, while JPMorgan targets 11.15 for Sep-26. Danske Bank is more bearish on NOK, with a Mar-26 target of 11.50. All major house calls remain within our broad range, reinforcing our range-trading thesis.
How other firms see it
Morgan Stanley (aligned) echoes our reading of a neutral Norges Bank, seeing limited scope for NOK appreciation until energy prices rally. JPMorgan (aligned) also expects range-bound trading, citing balanced risks. In contrast, Danske Bank (contrary) argues that a more patient Norges Bank will eventually underpin NOK, targeting a stronger crown by 2027.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Bache's testimony was neutral, with no change in forward guidance.
- 02NOK remains driven by external factors; domestic data the next trigger.
- 03Consensus sees EUR/NOK in 11.00-11.50 range through mid-2026.
Market implications
The neutral testimony removes near-term policy risk, supporting range trades in EUR/NOK. Short-dated NOK OIS rates should consolidate; the focus shifts to Norway CPI (May 11) and oil inventories.
Risks to this view
Upside risk to EUR/NOK if oil prices slide below $70/bbl; downside risk if Bache later signals earlier or faster rate cuts due to weakening economy.
Sources & References
How we cover this story