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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
Policy rate
4.25%
as of 2026-07-28
Next meeting
Aug 14
T-8d
Norges Bank sets the policy rate for Norway under an inflation-targeting framework that also gives weight to output and employment stability. The Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee announces rate decisions through the year.
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
Policy rate
4.25%
As of 2026-07-28
NOK 2026 consensus
9.50
median of 18 banks
Next macro event
Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision
| Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision | NO | Med | 4.5% | 4.25% | |
| Interest Rate Decision | NO | Med | 4.5% | 4.25% |
5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
The desk posits that the recent central bank meetings from the Riskbank, Norges Bank, and Bank of England (BoE) highlight a shifting landscape in global rates amid evolving political dynamics in the…
The desk believes that the Norwegian krone (NOK) is poised for appreciation ahead of the Norges Bank's anticipated 25 basis point hike in August, driven by persistent inflation concerns. Per the full…
The desk interprets Governor Ida Wolden Bache's recent remarks on monetary policy as a signal of Norges Bank's commitment to maintaining a cautious yet proactive approach to interest rates. Per the…
The desk interprets Norges Bank's recent policy rate hike to 4.25% as a clear signal of the central bank's commitment to combating inflation, which has remained stubbornly high in the region. Per the…
The recent decision by Norges Bank to hike rates and maintain a hawkish guidance underscores a robust approach to inflation management. This aligns with the broader market expectations of continued…
Reports referencing Norges Bank across covered research desks
The next Norges Bank (Norges Bank) policy decision is scheduled for Aug 14. Because Norges Bank sets monetary policy for the NOK, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for NOK exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their NOK forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' NOK targets shift before and after Norges Bank decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.
Norges Bank's policy lean is read from its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the NOK, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for NOK forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 35 major banks read the Norges Bank path and translates it into where the NOK consensus and its dispersion sit.
Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Norges Bank's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their NOK targets. Relative policy paths (the Norges Bank versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which Norges Bank actions transmit into the NOK. FX Bank Forecast compares the published NOK forecasts of 35 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the Norges Bank outlook evolves.