Loading…
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Institutional FX coverage in your inbox
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
Policy rate
4.25%
as of 2026-09-11
Next meeting
Sep 24
T-3d
Norges Bank sets the policy rate for Norway under an inflation-targeting framework that also gives weight to output and employment stability. The Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee announces rate decisions through the year.
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
Policy rate
4.25%
As of 2026-09-11
NOK 2026 consensus
9.42
median of 17 banks
Next macro event
Interest Rate Decision
| Interest Rate Decision | NO | Med | 4.5% | 4.25% |
5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
The desk anticipates that the Norges Bank will implement a 25 basis point hike to 4.50% during Thursday's meeting, motivated by persistent concerns over inflation despite mixed signals in recent…
Lead — The desk views Norges Bank's path toward potential rate hikes as cautiously optimistic despite recent cooler inflation data, suggesting the first hike may still occur in September. Per the…
The desk posits that the recent central bank meetings from the Riskbank, Norges Bank, and Bank of England (BoE) highlight a shifting landscape in global rates amid evolving political dynamics in the…
The desk believes that the Norwegian krone (NOK) is poised for appreciation ahead of the Norges Bank's anticipated 25 basis point hike in August, driven by persistent inflation concerns. Per the full…
The desk interprets Governor Ida Wolden Bache's recent remarks on monetary policy as a signal of Norges Bank's commitment to maintaining a cautious yet proactive approach to interest rates. Per the…
Reports referencing Norges Bank across covered research desks
The next Norges Bank (Norges Bank) policy decision is scheduled for Sep 24. Because Norges Bank sets monetary policy for the NOK, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for NOK exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their NOK forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' NOK targets shift before and after Norges Bank decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.
Norges Bank's policy lean is read from its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the NOK, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for NOK forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 37 major banks read the Norges Bank path and translates it into where the NOK consensus and its dispersion sit.
Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Norges Bank's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their NOK targets. Relative policy paths (the Norges Bank versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which Norges Bank actions transmit into the NOK. FX Bank Forecast compares the published NOK forecasts of 37 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the Norges Bank outlook evolves.