Japan’s 2.4% underlying inflation puts a higher BoJ terminal rate in play
The debate is shifting from when the BoJ hikes again to where rates peak, which matters most for the front end of the JGB curve. A market that moves from pricing a terminal rate around 1.75% to one closer to or above 2% would be likely to push two-year and five-year yields higher
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UBS | Bearish | 160.00 |
ING | Bullish | 152.00 |
Société Générale | Bearish | 160.00 |
All 24 desk targets for USD/JPY
Desk synthesis pending
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Sources & References
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Cross-firm research
USD/JPY at 156.76: Consensus Targets 153.0, Dispersion Hits 25.5
USD/JPY trades 2.46% above the 25-firm Dec-26 consensus of 153.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion reflecting deep disagreement on the BoJ rate path and US 10-year trajectory.
USD/JPY Consensus Check: Spot at 158.04, Median Target 153 — Week of October 21, 2026
USD/JPY trades 3.3% above the 25-firm median Dec-26 target of 153.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ path.
USD/JPY Consensus Check: Spot at 158.15, Median Target 153.0 — Week of October 20, 2026
USD/JPY trades 3.37% above the 25-firm median Dec-26 target of 153.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.