John C Williams: There is no try
The desk interprets John C. Williams' recent remarks as a clear signal of the Federal Reserve's unwavering commitment to its monetary policy objectives, emphasizing that there is no room for half-measures. Per the full note source, Williams articulated a resolute stance on maintaining inflation targets, which aligns with the Fed's broader strategy to ensure price stability. This perspective is reinforced by recent economic data indicating a persistent inflationary environment, with the latest CPI print showing year-over-year inflation at 4.2%. As such, the desk anticipates that the USD will strengthen against major currencies, particularly as traders adjust their positions ahead of upcoming economic indicators.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a pivotal moment for the USD, driven by the Fed's commitment to its inflation targets. Williams' remarks underscore the Fed's determination to avoid complacency in the face of ongoing inflationary pressures, suggesting that further tightening may be on the horizon.
Recent data supports this view, with inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target, as evidenced by the latest CPI reading of 4.2%. This persistent inflation suggests that the Fed is likely to maintain its hawkish stance, which should bolster the USD in the near term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for USD performance against the EUR is 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan, which is positioned at the upper bound of our spread, while bofa diverges significantly with a more bearish outlook.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and citi are aligned with our bullish USD outlook, anticipating further Fed tightening. Conversely, bofa and goldman express caution, suggesting potential headwinds for the USD due to external factors.
Watch the EUR/USD trajectory closely, as it is likely to reflect the Fed's rate path and broader market sentiment regarding inflation and monetary policy.
What the calendar says
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Sources & References
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Primary source
John C Williams: There is no try