Polish activity data slows further in 2Q but 3.4% growth still achievable for 2026
Lead — As the Polish economy experiences a deceleration in activity data, with retail sales and construction output underperforming, the outlook for GDP growth remains cautiously optimistic with a potential 3.4% growth achievable by 2026. Although consumption is softening, strong investments in the economy could support this growth trajectory. Per the full note source, analysts suggest that consumer confidence, while recovering, still indicated a lack of concern over energy supply shortages, which might complicate spending patterns against a backdrop of stagnant wage growth. This economic context is critical for institutional FX traders monitoring the PLN’s behavior against major currency pairs.
What the desk is arguing
The desk interprets the current decline in Polish activity metrics as a temporary slowdown rather than a precursor to a more severe economic downturn. Per the full note source, GDP growth in the second quarter is expected to fall below the earlier growth rate of 3.5% YoY, indicating that while the economy is moderating, it is not in freefall.
The report highlights a mixed picture in retail sales, with growth rebounding to 3.0% YoY in May after a sluggish April, though still missing market expectations. Coupled with a recovery in construction output (3.9% YoY), the overall data suggests that internal demand, bolstered by investments, could underpin a sustained growth outlook for 2026.
Where it sits in our coverage
The desk's analysis aligns with the broader consensus, particularly with targets set by notable firms like jpmorgan at 1.10 and bofa at 1.04 for December 2026.
This perspective falls into the middle ground of expectations, reflecting cautious optimism supported by strong investment albeit tempered by weaker consumer trends. The desk's view is consistent with prevailing expectations of gradual growth rather than sharp declines.
How other firms see it
Several firms, including jpmorgan and gs, share a relatively positive outlook for the PLN, anticipating a moderate recovery supported by investments. In contrast, firms like bofa are adopting a more conservative stance, reflecting heightened concerns over consumer spending potential.
Key currency pairs to watch include EUR/PLN and USD/PLN as they are likely to reflect shifts in investor sentiment around Poland’s economic health and broader EU economic trends.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Polish GDP growth is projected to soften to below 3.5% YoY in Q2 2026, with investments supporting a long-term outlook of 3.4%.
- 02Retail sales in May grew 3.0% YoY, rebounding from a disappointing April yet still missing expectations.
- 03Construction output recovery from harsh weather conditions indicates resilience in certain economic sectors.
- 04Consumer sentiment is improving, but spending remains sensitive to fuel prices and broader economic conditions.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the PLN's movement against the euro and dollar, especially as emerging data from retail sales and construction output may affect sentiment. The PLN may become more volatile if upcoming indicators reflect further consumer weakness or unexpected investment drops.
Risks to this view
The key risks to this outlook include a potential acceleration in inflation leading to tightening monetary policy from the National Bank of Poland. Additionally, any geopolitical developments that impact consumer confidence or investment flows could lead to downward revisions in growth targets.
Articles Polish activity data slows further in 2Q but 3.4% growth still achievable for 2026 13:28 Poland Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download May retail sales and construction output disappointed, and GDP growth in the second quarter is set to fall below the 3.5% YoY rate seen in the first quarter. Despite softer consumption, strong investment should keep 2026 GDP growth at 3.4%. Wages show no second-round energy effects, allowing the central bank to keep rates on hold in the coming quarters Adam Antoniak , Leszek Kasek , Michal Rubaszek and Mateusz Sutowicz Poland's retail sales growth rebounded in May but the result still disappointed relative to expectations Consumer strength moderated further in 2Q26 The prolonged conflict in the Middle East most likely weighed on consumer spending patterns in 2Q26.
In May, retail sales growth rebounded to 3.0% year-on-year from 1.3% YoY in April, as part of Easter spending had already taken place in March, but the result still disappointed relative to expectations. Although fuel price growth was contained by government measures (lower excise duty, VAT reduction and price caps), demand for petrol and diesel in May was not as robust as in the previous months. Consumers appear less concerned about potential supply shortages and more sensitive to the prevailing level of fuel prices.
Food purchases declined for a second consecutive month, while annual growth in durable goods purchases was weaker than at the beginning of the year. Consumer confidence began to improve after bottoming out in April, and private consumption should remain a solid pillar of economic growth this year, albeit likely to a lesser extent than in 2025. Construction output rebounding, but infrastructure activity disappointed Following sharp declines in 1Q26 due to harsh weather conditions, the recovery in construction output continued in May, with production increasing by 3.9% YoY after 4.5% YoY in April.
However, there were some signs of weakness, particularly in civil engineering, which fell by 1.8% YoY. We expect activity in this segment to pick up going forward, as the time window for executing projects financed under the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) narrows. We anticipate that stronger fixed investment over the remainder of the year will offset the slowdown in consumption growth.
Overall, real economy data for May suggests that GDP growth slowed further in 2Q26 from 3.5% YoY in 1Q26 but remains on track to reach 3.4% in 2026 as a whole. No signs of second-round effects in the labour market In May, wages in the enterprise sector rose by 5.8% YoY, surprising slightly to the downside, while employment continued to decline (down 0.9% YoY). There is no evidence of wage pressure or second-round effects from the current energy shock, which alleviates pressure on services prices and core inflation.
The labour market continues to adjust following several years of double-digit wage growth. Firms are adapting to higher labour costs, and wage demands are being contained amid anchored inflation expectations. National Bank of Poland set to keep rates on hold A less tight labour market, somewhat slower economic growth, and an inflation outlook showing limited pass-through from the energy shock provide the central bank with sufficient comfort to maintain a wait-and-see stance.
CPI inflation may return to the NBP’s target as early as 2Q27, as the impact of elevated oil prices is expected to remain contained and unlikely to spread broadly across the consumer basket. We continue to expect policymakers to keep rates on hold, with the next move likely to be a cut, although its timing appears some way off. Retail sales NBP rates GDP growth Construction output Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives.
The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Adam Antoniak Senior Economist, Poland Adam has about 20 years of experience in macroeconomic research. He has worked for leading financial institutions in Poland (Bank Pekao, Bank BPH), and members of international financial groups… Leszek Kasek Senior Economist, Poland Leszek Kąsek is a Senior Economist in the economic research team at ING Bank Śląski in Warsaw, responsible for sustainability, energy transition, and green finance in Poland.
He… Michal Rubaszek Senior Economist, Poland Michal Rubaszek is a Senior Economist at ING Poland, joining in 2022. He is also a professor of economics at SGH Warsaw School of Economics and the author of numerous academic articles on… Mateusz Sutowicz Senior Economist, Poland Mateusz is a Senior Economist based in Warsaw and joined ING in 2025. He graduated from the Catholic University of Lublin and previously worked as a financial market analyst at Bank Millennium for… In this article Consumer strength moderated further in 2Q26 Construction output rebounding, but infrastructure activity disappointed No signs of second-round effects in the labour market National Bank of Poland set to keep rates on hold
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