The Commodities Feed: Oil rises amid shaky start to US-Iran ceasefire
Oil prices are witnessing upward momentum, propelled by a delicate ceasefire between the US and Iran, which faces significant skepticism. Per the full note from ing-think, the US-Iran temporary ceasefire has been fraught with challenges, highlighted by delays in negotiations and heightened rhetoric around the Strait of Hormuz. Notably, the market is reacting to speculators significantly trimming their net long positions in ICE Brent, now at its lowest since December 2025, with shorts entering amid uncertainty. This backdrop provides a complex setting for oil and currency pairs linked to energy prices ahead of potentially volatile developments in the US-Iran talks.
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that ongoing US-Iran tensions, despite a temporary ceasefire, are creating upward pressure on oil prices, which could spill over into currency markets. Per the full note from ing-think, the ceasefire's rocky start, along with military threats from the US, raises concerns about supply disruptions that could ignite further price rallies.
Recent positioning data highlights that speculators sold 94,763 lots in ICE Brent, leaving them with a net long of just 114,128 lots, the smallest level since December 2025. The addition of 74,581 lots of fresh shorts indicates that market participants are hedging against a potential spike in volatility.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for oil prices is currently marked at $1.075, with a range from $1.04 to $1.12. Key firms include: - jpmorgan: Price target of 1.10 for Mar26. - bofa: Price target of 1.04 for Mar26.
This view aligns with jpmorgan's bullish stance, while diverging slightly from bofa's more cautious outlook set at the lower end of the spread.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and others appear to have a bullish perspective on oil prices, anticipating continued upward pressure from geopolitical risks. Conversely, firms such as bofa take a more guarded approach, focusing on potential price corrections.
In this fluid environment, traders should closely monitor the interplay between currency pairs such as EUR/USD and insights surrounding the Federal Reserve's policies, as these dynamics could heavily influence the broader market response to commodity price shifts.
What the calendar says
No high-impact events are scheduled in the upcoming weeks that would directly affect this situation, although the evolving geopolitical landscape will remain a key catalyst for market movements.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01US-Iran tensions remain high despite a fragile ceasefire, impacting oil prices.
- 02Speculators significantly reduced their net long positions in ICE Brent, indicating uncertainty.
- 03Natural gas prices have started to rise, reflecting the ongoing tension in energy markets.
- 04The situation could lead to potential volatility in related currency pairs.
Market implications
Watch for implications around $1.075 for oil, as any disruptions in supply could trigger a wave of short covering among speculators. Additionally, follow the broader impacts on related currency pairs, particularly those sensitive to energy price fluctuations.
Risks to this view
A sudden and meaningful escalation in US-Iran hostilities could sharply reverse current market sentiments, driving oil prices significantly higher and forcing a re-evaluation of positioning among traders.
Articles The Commodities Feed: Oil rises amid shaky start to US-Iran ceasefire 02:14 Commodities daily Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Oil prices are higher this morning as tensions between the US and Iran remain elevated despite a temporary ceasefire Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey Energy - Speculators build the short in ICE Brent Oil prices have moved higher this morning as the US-Iran ceasefire gets off to a rocky start. Talks initially scheduled for Friday were delayed until Sunday. And Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend due to Israeli attacks on Lebanon.
The effectiveness of this announced closure is another question. The US Central Command says that 17 million barrels had passed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. Meanwhile, President Trump threatened further strikes on Iran if Hezbollah in Lebanon continues attacking Israel.
Recent developments show that moving towards a more permanent deal will be challenging, with very real risks of a flare-up in hostilities during the 60-day ceasefire. For energy markets, the key factor is still whether oil and LNG flows from the Persian Gulf continue to recover, despite all the rhetoric. The latest positioning data show that speculators significantly reduced their net long in ICE Brent over the last reporting week, amid the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran.
Speculators sold 94,763 lots, leaving them with a net long of 114,128 lots, the smallest net long since December 2025. Interestingly, the move was dominated by fresh shorts entering the market. They bought 74,581 lots, leaving the gross short at 231,218 lots, the largest since December.
Clearly, if US-Iran talks don’t progress well, there’s a very real risk that these shorts will have to run in and cover. In natural gas markets, ongoing tension between the US and Iran has seen TTF prices rally by more than 3% this morning. As we move deeper into the injection season and closer to the 2026/27 winter, the European gas market will become increasingly sensitive to developments in the Middle East.
Particularly given that EU gas storage remains well below normal levels for this stage of the year. Gas storage stands at just over 46% full, vs a 5-year average of 61% full. Metals - Gold extends losses Gold fell for a third consecutive session on Friday, posting a third straight weekly decline.
The metal lost more than 2% over the week as investors weighed the outlook for US-Iran negotiations and US monetary policy. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, the resumption of oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz has eased concerns over energy supply disruptions and reduced fears of a broader inflation shock. At the same time, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced expectations that US interest rates will remain higher for longer.
This reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. Gold is likely to remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East and shifts in Fed rate expectations. While geopolitical risks should continue to provide underlying support, a higher-for-longer US rate environment may limit near-term upside.
WTI TTF Strait of Hormuz Precious metals Persian Gulf Natural gas LNG Iran conflict Gold Federal Reserve Board Crude oil Central banks Brent Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Warren Patterson Head of Commodities Strategy Warren Patterson is Head of Commodities strategy based in Singapore.
He joined the bank in April 2016 and covers the entire commodities complex. Previously, he worked at a commodities trade house… Ewa Manthey Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey is a Commodities Strategist based in London. She joined the bank in September 2022 and covers the entire commodities complex, with a particular focus on the metals markets.
She has… In this article Energy - Speculators build the short in ICE Brent Metals - Gold extends losses
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