What's takeaway 1 on Polish industrial production picks up May as K?

May industrial production rose 4.1% YoY, beating consensus of 2.5%.

What's takeaway 2 on Polish industrial production picks up May as K?

Defense & infrastructure sectors (transport equipment +60.5%) drove the gain.

What are the market implications for Polish industrial production picks up May as K?

The resilient data supports a modest PLN positive bias, but the lack of upcoming domestic events leaves EUR/PLN range-bound near 4.30-4.35. Watch the German Ifo and eurozone PMIs for external demand signals.

What are the risks to this view on Polish industrial production picks up May as K?

A sharp slowdown in Germany or EU fund disbursement delays would reverse the current tailwind. The durable goods slump also signals consumer weakness that could spread if eurozone recession deepens.

Polish industrial production picks up May as K-shape split emerges

Polish industrial production beat expectations in May, rising 4.1% YoY vs consensus 2.5%, driven by defense and infrastructure spending. A K-shaped recovery is emerging, with sectors like transport equipment surging 60.5% while durable consumer goods declined. The data suggests domestic demand resilience despite eurozone weakness, but the lack of high-impact upcoming events limits immediate FX implications. Per the full note source, the outperformance may support PLN sentiment, though external headwinds from Germany remain.

What the desk is arguing

The ING desk frames the May industrial production beat as evidence of a K-shaped recovery, where defense and infrastructure-linked sectors surge while consumer-facing manufacturing lags. Output rose 4.1% YoY (consensus 2.5%, ING forecast 1.8%), with the fastest growth in "other transport equipment" (+60.5%), including ships, aircraft, and military vehicles. The desk notes that the strong print occurred despite one fewer working day and weak eurozone demand, pointing to domestically-driven activity.

Supporting evidence includes a 1.4% month-on-month seasonally adjusted rise (vs -2.3% in April), with intermediate goods, energy, and investment goods leading. The decline in durable consumer goods production (-significant) confirms the split. The desk implicitly rejects the alternative read that the beat is temporary or purely calendar-driven, emphasizing the structural boost from EU funds and defense spending.

Where it sits in our coverage

No internal coverage data was available for this commentary, so this section is omitted.

How other firms see it

No internal coverage data was available for this commentary, so this section is omitted.

What the calendar says

No high-impact events are scheduled in the next 30 days for Poland, so this section is omitted.

Older quick take Quick take 11:00 Poland Polish industrial production picks up May as K-shape split emerges Industrial production outperformed consensus in May despite geopolitical disruptions and weak demand from the eurozone. While sectors linked to defence and infrastructure spending were buoyant, some manufacturing branches recorded deep declines; a K-shaped pattern is now becoming visible The fastest-growing category in May's data includes ships, boats, rolling stock, aircrafts and military vehicles Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Leszek Kasek Senior Economist, Poland Mateusz Sutowicz Senior Economist, Poland Polish industrial production rose by 4.1% year-on-year in May, above the consensus of 2.5% and our forecast of 1.8%. The acceleration from 3.1% in April occurred despite weak external demand, particularly from Germany, uncertainty and volatility linked to the conflict in the Middle East, as well as an unfavourable calendar effect (one fewer working day than in 2025).

In seasonally adjusted terms, production increased by 1.4% month-on-month, after falling by 2.3% in April. The strongest increases were recorded in the production of intermediate goods, energy-related goods and investment goods. Production of non-durable consumer goods grew slowly, while production of durable consumer goods fell significantly.

Within the structure of May industrial production, the largest increases were recorded in “other transport equipment” (up 60.5% YoY, with a 2.8% share of total production), mining and quarrying (up 32.6% YoY), waste management (14.8%), electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (13.7%), and production of non-metallic mineral products (12.2%). The fastest-growing category includes ships, boats, rolling stock, aircraft, military fighting vehicles, motorcycles and wheelchairs. This suggests rising expenditure on defence equipment and infrastructure.

Nevertheless, several sectors recorded double-digit YoY declines, highlighting divergent trends across manufacturing branches – a K-shaped pattern. The deepest falls were seen in clothing production (-20.3% YoY), tobacco products (-17.8%) and textiles (-10.8%). Furniture production also declined significantly (-7.1%), as did the production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers.

The latter category accounts for as much as 9.5% of total production and, like furniture, is under strong and growing competitive pressure from Chinese suppliers. Recent data from China points to solid YoY growth in industrial production alongside a decline in retail sales, indicating that Chinese firms remain primarily focused on export expansion. Today’s better-than-expected industrial production data fits into the trend of moderate manufacturing activity observed in the second quarter of this year.

A positive factor is the relative resilience of the domestic industry to the commodity shock (crude oil) associated with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, weak economic conditions in Germany, and rising competitive pressure from China. Poland is launching major public and defence investment programmes, which should provide an impulse for industrial recovery in the coming months and are already beginning to show in the data (high YoY growth in the “other transport equipment” category, which includes, among other things, military expenditure). As a result, we maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.4%.

Today’s data opens the series of May readings for the economy. For the Monetary Policy Council, next week’s labour market data will be particularly important. Nevertheless, we expect National Bank of Poland interest rates to remain unchanged this year.

Growth of Poland's industrial production in May, by branch, in %, YoY Source: CSO data, ING calculations. "> Source: CSO data, ING calculations. Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.