Results of the 105th Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior
Lead — The desk interprets the latest Bank of Japan (BoJ) survey results as indicative of a cautiously optimistic sentiment among the Japanese public regarding economic conditions, despite lingering concerns about inflation. Per the full note source, the survey shows that 6.3% of respondents believe economic conditions have improved over the past year, a notable increase from previous surveys. However, the majority still perceive worsening conditions, with 51.8% indicating a decline. This mixed sentiment comes ahead of critical economic data releases, including GDP growth rates and trade balances, which could further influence market perceptions and the JPY's trajectory.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a pivotal moment for the JPY, as public sentiment reflects a gradual shift towards optimism, albeit from a low base. The survey indicates a declining negative impression of economic conditions, with the diffusion index improving from -50.4 to -45.5, suggesting that the public is beginning to see some light at the end of the tunnel.
Additionally, the outlook for household circumstances shows a similar trend, with those reporting improved conditions rising to 5.8%. This could signal a potential shift in consumer behavior and spending, which are crucial for economic recovery.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for USD/JPY is 1.075, with a range spanning from 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 - bofa: 1.04 - citi: 1.08
This view aligns with jpmorgan, which anticipates a stronger JPY based on improving sentiment, while bofa remains cautious, positioning at the lower end of the range.
How other firms see it
Firms aligned with our view, such as jpmorgan and citi, highlight the potential for a JPY appreciation if economic indicators continue to improve. Conversely, bofa expresses skepticism, focusing on persistent inflationary pressures that may hinder recovery.
Market participants should keep an eye on USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, as these pairs will be sensitive to any shifts in sentiment following the upcoming economic data releases.
What the calendar says
With the GDP Growth Rate and Balance of Trade data scheduled for May 19 and 21, respectively, these events will be critical in shaping market expectations and could validate or challenge the optimistic sentiment reflected in the survey results.
Results of the 105th Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior (March 2026 Survey) April 20, 2026 Public Relations Department Bank of Japan Full Text [PDF 571KB] Survey Outline Survey period : From February 4 to March 9, 2026. Population of the Survey : Individuals living in Japan who are at least 20 years of age. Sample size : 4,000 people (2,030 people [i.e., 50.8 percent of the overall sample size] provided valid responses to questions).
Sampling method : Stratified two-stage random sampling method. Survey methodology : Mail survey method (responses collected by mail or via the internet). Impression of Present Economic Conditions Compared with One Year Ago Percent, percentage points 102nd survey (Jun 2025) 103rd survey (Sep 2025) 104th survey (Dec 2025) 105th survey (Mar 2026) Have improved (A) 3.5 3.8 5.4 6.3 Have remained the same 25.4 33.5 38.5 41.2 Have worsened (B) 70.5 62.5 55.8 51.8 D.I. (A) minus (B) -67.0 -58.7 -50.4 -45.5 Outlook for Economic Conditions One Year from Now Percent, percentage points 102nd survey (Jun 2025) 103rd survey (Sep 2025) 104th survey (Dec 2025) 105th survey (Mar 2026) Will improve (A) 4.5 5.5 13.8 14.3 Will remain the same 46.5 48.4 53.4 52.5 Will worsen (B) 48.4 45.7 32.1 32.8 D.I. (A) minus (B) -43.9 -40.2 -18.3 -18.5 Impression of Present Household Circumstances Compared with One Year Ago Percent, percentage points 102nd survey (Jun 2025) 103rd survey (Sep 2025) 104th survey (Dec 2025) 105th survey (Mar 2026) Have become better off (A) 3.8 4.5 5.0 5.8 Difficult to say 34.3 38.6 37.0 40.1 Have become worse off (B) 61.0 56.1 57.2 53.4 D.I. (A) minus (B) -57.2 -51.6 -52.2 -47.6 Perception of the Present Price Levels Compared with One Year Ago Percent 102nd survey (Jun 2025) 103rd survey (Sep 2025) 104th survey (Dec 2025) 105th survey (Mar 2026) Have gone up significantly 75.3 69.4 70.0 68.3 Have gone up slightly 20.8 25.4 25.2 26.7 Have been almost unchanged 1.7 3.0 2.8 3.2 Have gone down slightly 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 Have gone down significantly 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 Outlook for Price Levels One Year from Now Percent 102nd survey (Jun 2025) 103rd survey (Sep 2025) 104th survey (Dec 2025) 105th survey (Mar 2026) Will go up significantly 33.4 32.1 28.2 29.2 Will go up slightly 51.7 55.9 57.8 54.5 Will be almost unchanged 11.8 9.3 11.1 12.4 Will go down slightly 1.7 1.2 1.9 2.7 Will go down significantly 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 One of the Bank's Objectives Is to Achieve Price Stability Percent 102nd survey (Jun 2025) 103rd survey (Sep 2025) 104th survey (Dec 2025) 105th survey (Mar 2026) Know about it 26.2 28.1 26.2 27.1 Have read or heard of it, but do not know much about it 46.8 37.7 49.7 38.7 Have never heard of it 26.3 33.4 23.7 33.4 The Bank Has Set the Price Stability Target at 2 Percent in terms of the Year-on-Year Rate of Change in the CPI Percent 102nd survey (Jun 2025) 103rd survey (Sep 2025) 104th survey (Dec 2025) 105th survey (Mar 2026) Know about it 21.7 21.5 20.6 21.3 Have read or heard of it, but do not know much about it 32.6 28.6 35.9 29.3 Have never heard of it 45.2 49.2 43.1 48.5 Confidence in the Bank Percent 102nd survey (Jun 2025) 103rd survey (Sep 2025) 104th survey (Dec 2025) 105th survey (Mar 2026) Confident 12.2 15.7 13.5 17.3 Somewhat confident 29.1 31.5 32.3 34.0 Difficult to say 47.6 41.6 45.7 37.1 Not particularly confident 6.3 5.1 4.9 5.9 Not confident 3.9 5.1 3.0 4.7 Inquiries Public Relations Department E-mail : post.prd71(at)boj.or.jp *Please change (at) to @.
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