Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the second quarter of 2026
The desk anticipates a cautious outlook for the eurozone economy, driven by upward revisions in inflation expectations and downward adjustments in GDP growth forecasts. Per the full note from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, headline inflation expectations for 2026 have risen to 2.7%, while real GDP growth has been revised down to 1.0%. This divergence suggests a tightening of monetary policy may be on the horizon, especially with the ECB's next macroeconomic projections due on June 11, 2026.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a pivotal moment for the eurozone, where inflationary pressures are expected to persist despite a slowing economy. According to the ECB's latest survey, expectations for headline HICP inflation have been revised up to 2.7% for 2026, indicating that inflation remains a key concern for policymakers.
Real GDP growth expectations have been downgraded to 1.0% for 2026, reflecting the adverse impacts of rising energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions. This juxtaposition of rising inflation against declining growth could compel the ECB to adopt a more hawkish stance in upcoming meetings.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) - citi: 1.12 (Mar26)
This view aligns closely with jpmorgan, which shares a similar outlook on the euro's trajectory, while bofa presents a more bearish stance, sitting at the lower bound of our range.
How other firms see it
Firms like citi and jpmorgan are aligned in anticipating a stronger euro, reflecting confidence in the ECB's ability to manage inflation. Conversely, bofa holds a contrary view, projecting a weaker euro amid economic headwinds.
Traders should keep an eye on the EUR/USD pair, as its movements will likely reflect the evolving dynamics of ECB policy and inflation expectations. Additionally, the upcoming ECB macroeconomic projections will be crucial in shaping market sentiment.
What the calendar says
With the next ECB macroeconomic projections scheduled for June 11, 2026, traders should prepare for potential volatility in EUR/USD as these insights could significantly influence market expectations regarding future monetary policy adjustments.
Key takeaways
- 01ECB inflation expectations for 2026 revised up to 2.7%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures.
- 02Real GDP growth expectations downgraded to 1.0% for 2026, highlighting economic challenges.
- 03Upcoming ECB macroeconomic projections on June 11 will be critical for shaping market sentiment.
- 04Diverging views among firms suggest a polarized outlook for EUR/USD.
Market implications
Watch for EUR/USD to react to the upcoming ECB macroeconomic projections on June 11, as these could provide clarity on the central bank's policy direction amid rising inflation and slowing growth.
PRESS RELEASE Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the second quarter of 2026 4 May 2026 Headline and core HICP inflation revised up in the near term, while remaining unchanged further out Real GDP growth expectations revised down for 2026 and 2027, but unchanged thereafter Unemployment rate expectations unchanged Respondents’ expectations for headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), were 2.7% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028. Expectations for 2026 and 2027 were revised up compared with the previous round (conducted in the first quarter of 2026). Expectations for 2028 were revised down compared with the previous survey.
Meanwhile, expectations for core HICP inflation, which excludes energy and food, were 2.2% for 2026 and 2027, and 2.1% for 2028, also revised up in the near term from the previous survey. Expectations for the longer term (2030) were unchanged at 2.0% for both headline and core HICP inflation. Respondents expected real GDP growth of 1.0% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027 and 1.3% in 2028.
Compared with the previous survey, expectations were revised down by 0.2 percentage points for 2026 and by 0.1 percentage points for 2027, but were unchanged for 2028. The downward revisions were mainly driven by the expected negative impact of higher energy prices related to the war in the Middle East. Longer-term GDP growth expectations were unchanged at 1.3%.
Unemployment rate expectations were unchanged. Respondents expected the unemployment rate to be 6.3% for 2026, 6.2% for 2027, and 6.1% for 2028 and the longer term (2030). Table: Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the second quarter of 2026 (annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated) Survey horizon 2026 2027 2028 Longer term 1) HICP inflation Q2 2026 SPF 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 Previous survey (Q1 2026) 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.0 HICP inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Q2 2026 SPF 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 Previous survey (Q1 2026) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Real GDP growth Q2 2026 SPF 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 Previous survey (Q 2026) 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 Unemployment rate 2) Q2 2026 SPF 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 Previous survey (Q1 2026) 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 Wage growth Q2 2026 SPF 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8 Previous survey (Q1 2026) 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 1) Longer-term expectations refer to 2030. 2) As a percentage of the labour force.
For media queries, please contact William Lelieveldt , tel.: +49 69 1344 7316. Notes The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2026 was conducted between 31 March and 8 April 2026 and 56 responses were received. The SPF is conducted on a quarterly basis and gathers expectations for inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area for several horizons, together with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding them.
The survey participants are experts affiliated with financial and non-financial institutions based in Europe. The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or its staff. The next Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area will be published on 11 June 2026.
Since 2015 the results of the SPF have been published on the ECB’s website. For surveys prior to the first quarter of 2015, see the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin (2002-14: Q1 – February, Q2 – May, Q3 – August, Q4 – November). The survey report and more detailed data are available via the SPF webpage and the ECB Data Portal .
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