The market is pricing in a 78% chance of a Bank of Canada rate hike
The Bank of Canada rate decision is due at 9:45 am ET and it's an uncertain one. The market shifted aggressively hawkish after comments from Macklem at the IMF meetings. That now has the market pricing in a 78% chance of a hike today and 31 bps of hikes before year end. That rise
USD/CAD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Rabobank | Bullish | 1.36 |
ING | Bearish | 1.42 |
MUFG | Bullish | 1.34 |
All 26 desk targets for USD/CAD
Desk synthesis pending
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Cross-firm research
USD/CAD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.4101 vs 1.36 Median, Week of Nov 6 2026
USD/CAD trades 3.69% above the 26-firm Dec-26 median of 1.36, with a 0.11 dispersion range flagging unusually wide disagreement on the BoC-Fed gap.
USD/CAD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.3956 vs 1.36 Target, Week of November 5, 2026
USD/CAD trades 2.61% above the 26-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.36, with a 0.11 dispersion range signalling genuine strategic disagreement on the BoC-Fed gap.
USD/CAD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.3957, Median Target 1.36 — Week of November 4, 2026
USD/CAD trades 2.63% above the 26-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.36, with a 0.11 spread separating Citi's 1.43 from Deutsche Bank's 1.32.