UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Solid foundations, political threats'
The desk emphasizes the potential disruption stemming from a threatened U.S. government shutdown as outlined in UBS's commentary. With budget negotiations failing under the influence of prominent figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump, the likelihood of a shutdown impacting economic data release could strain U.S. labor markets and ignite volatility in forex markets. Per the full note source from UBS, the implications of even a short shutdown could accumulate, casting a shadow over Federal Reserve Chair Powell's data-driven policymaking. While the immediate economic impact may be limited, the uncertainty inherent in prolonged shutdowns poses risks that traders should closely monitor.
What the desk is arguing
The desk argues that the looming U.S. government shutdown represents a material risk to economic stability and currency values. According to UBS, the failure to pass a budget could result in a shutdown starting tonight, with potential consequences for economic data that the Federal Reserve relies upon.
The commentary highlights that a short-lived shutdown would primarily affect government workers, yet any extended shutdown could severely disrupt economic data publication and insights into unemployment and growth metrics. Such developments may impede the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions, especially as they pivot towards managing interest rates with an eye for economic indicators.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for USD/EUR is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12 as drawn from current firm sentiment. Notable targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This desk's perspective leans towards a bearish view on the dollar, particularly if the shutdown lingers, aligning with jpmorgan's more cautious stance. This sits at the upper end of the target range while juxtaposed against bofa's lower forecast.
How other firms see it
Firms aligned with the desk's view, like jpmorgan, are anticipating potential weakness in USD/EUR dependent on fiscal developments, whereas bofa expresses a contrary stance that anticipates a stronger U.S. dollar should the shutdown culminate in a swift resolution.
In this context, closely watch the USD/EUR pair as market dynamics evolve, particularly noting how anticipated labor data reacts to fiscal uncertainties during the shutdown adhesion.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01A threatened U.S. government shutdown could disrupt economic indicators.
- 02Failure of budget negotiations implicates Federal Reserve policy-making processes.
- 03Short-lived shutdowns have limited initial impacts but extend economic consequences.
- 04Monitoring USD/EUR pair is vital as shutdown developments unfold.
Market implications
Watch for movement in the USD/EUR pair, particularly around 1.075, as traders react to any shutdown announcements or government negotiations. Positioning may shift rapidly in anticipation of labor market data being delayed due to shutdown implications.
Risks to this view
Should the government reach a budget agreement before the shutdown occurs, or if the impact on economic data proves limited, the potential bearish outlook on USD may reverse. Additionally, a reaffirmation of labor market resilience could undermine selling pressures on the dollar.
With the wearisome repetitiveness of a tacky Christmas song, a US government shutdown is again threatened. A budget deal backed by president-elect adviser Musk and President-elect Trump failed to pass Congress. Absent a deal, the US government starts to shut down tonight.
A short-lived shutdown affects government workers, but has limited economic impact. The longer a shutdown lasts, the more disruptive it is to the US economy. Economic data may not get published in a shutdown (a problem for Federal Reserve Chair Powell with their addiction to data dependency).
Sources & References
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