Which currency pairs do banks most disagree on?

This page ranks exactly that. It measures cross-firm forecast dispersion for every G10 currency pair across multiple forecast horizons, so the pairs where investment-bank desks most disagree rise to the top of the heatmap as the loudest cells.

What does forecast dispersion tell me?

Forecast dispersion is how far apart the banks are on the same currency and horizon, measured as the coefficient of variation across their forecast targets. Wide dispersion means low cross-firm conviction and elevated market uncertainty; tight dispersion means the desks broadly agree. It is a forward-looking read on where consensus is weakest.

How is bank forecast disagreement measured here?

Disagreement is quantified as the coefficient of variation — the standard deviation of investment-bank forecasts divided by their mean — computed per currency pair and per forecast horizon. The result is shown as a heatmap so you can compare where conviction is strongest versus weakest at a glance.

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FX BANK FORECAST · DISAGREEMENT

Where the Street disagrees most

Name: Cross-Firm FX Forecast Dispersion Matrix
Creator: FX Bank Forecast

This is a cross-firm forecast-dispersion map. It measures how widely investment-bank desks disagree on each currency pair and forecast horizon, and ranks where consensus conviction is weakest — answering the question “where do the banks most disagree, and how much?”

Each cell shows the coefficient of variation across firm forecasts for that currency and horizon: the standard deviation of bank targets divided by their mean. Loud cells mark wide dispersion — low cross-firm conviction and elevated uncertainty — read as a forward-looking signal of where the market is least settled.

Pair	mar26	jun26	sep26	dec26
EUR/USD	1.6%	2.6%	2.8%	4.1%
JPY/USD	1.8%	2.6%	3.0%	6.1%
GBP/USD	1.8%	3.4%	3.5%	4.6%
CHF/USD	1.6%	2.3%	2.9%	3.0%
AUD/USD	3.9%	3.1%	3.4%	3.5%
CAD/USD	0.7%	1.1%	1.8%	1.9%
NZD/USD	1.7%	1.9%	2.8%	3.0%
NOK/USD	3.4%	4.3%	5.1%	5.1%
SEK/USD	3.8%	4.4%	5.2%	5.5%

FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.