FX Talking: Forecast table
The latest FX forecasts from ING, led by Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole, suggest a stable outlook for major currency pairs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank policies. Per the full note from ING, the outlook appears to emphasize the resilience of commodity currencies, particularly in light of sustained global commodity prices. With no significant calendar events to influence immediate market movements, traders may need to focus on internal positioning and broader macroeconomic trends.
What the desk is arguing
ING's forecast underscores a cautiously optimistic posture for FX markets, noting a balance between local economic strength and external geopolitical challenges. This sentiment aligns with the expectation of commodity currencies performing well, even as uncertainties linger. Per the full note from ING, the team's analysis prioritizes factors such as commodity price resilience and interest rate adjustments by central banks.
The firm's insights suggest that the key data for traders to monitor include fluctuations in commodity prices and their potential impact on currency valuations. With forecasts indicating a range for key pairs extending between 1.04 and 1.12, traders will be looking closely at factors influencing this range, including central bank announcements and economic indicators.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our internal consensus target for the major currency pairs currently hovers around 1.075, with specific forecasts from notable players indicating a broader range: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
The desk's thesis supports a moderately bullish trend, which sits aligned with jpmorgan's target, while bofa's more conservative outlook suggests a divergence in sentiment across the market. This indicates a potential upper bound for now at 1.10.
How other firms see it
Predominantly, firms like jpmorgan express an aligned view, focusing on the strengths of commodity currencies and macroeconomic trends. Conversely, firms such as bofa maintain a more cautious stance, suggesting potential challenges ahead for sustained strength.
Key intersecting factors include the US monetary policy trajectory and global commodity price movements, which are likely to influence trading dynamics in currency pairs. Establishing a strong correlation, the trajectory of commodity currencies is expected to be significantly affected by these elements, providing critical insights for FX traders.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01ING forecasts a stable outlook for FX markets amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
- 02Commodity currencies are expected to show resilience against ongoing market challenges.
- 03Traders should monitor commodity prices and central bank announcements as key indicators.
- 04Current consensus range for major pairs is between 1.04 and 1.12.
Market implications
Market participants should keenly watch commodity price movements as a primary signal for FX positioning, particularly in relation to the 1.075 consensus target. Additionally, the lack of near-term high-impact calendar events suggests markets may lean towards internal dynamics for direction.
Risks to this view
A significant shift in central bank policy or an unexpected geopolitical development could dramatically alter the current outlook, potentially driving currency pairs out of the established forecast ranges.
Articles FX Talking: Forecast table Published 12:00 Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The latest FX forecasts from our team Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole Source: Refinitiv, ING Forecasts "> Source: Refinitiv, ING Forecasts FX Talking Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Chris Turner Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE Chris is Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE.
Together with his team, he provides short and medium-term FX recommendations for ING's corporate and… Francesco Pesole FX Strategist Francesco is an FX Strategist and has been with the firm since May 2019. His main focus is on the G10 space and, in particular, on European and commodity currencies. He began his career at Credit… Included in the following bundle Bundle Published 12:20 FX Talking: Caught between war and Warsh This bundle contains 6 Articles
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FX Talking: Forecast table