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Sell-side consensus across six tracked EM pairs skews toward a softer dollar by December 2026 in four of six cases, though the degree of conviction varies sharply: USD/INR carries a 13.5-figure range across 19 contributing desks, while USD/BRL is nearly flat to spot with a sub-1% gap.
Key Numbers
Cross-firm year-end consensus across 9 EM currencies, with terminal-target dispersion and the top-bull / top-bear firm for each. Sorted ascending by gap-to-spot.
Source: Barclays · Bank of America · Goldman Sachs · JPMorgan +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-05-25 16:30 UTC
- USD/MXN spot: 18.39 | median Dec-26 target: 17.75 | spot trades 3.60% above consensus
- USD/BRL spot: 5.07 | median Dec-26 target: 5.10 | spot trades 0.58% below consensus
- USD/ZAR spot: 16.45 | median Dec-26 target: 16.10 | spot trades 2.15% above consensus
- USD/TRY spot: 49.53 | median Dec-26 target: 50.50 | spot trades 1.93% below consensus
- USD/INR spot: 94.95 | median Dec-26 target: 90.00 | spot trades 5.50% above consensus; range 83.5–97.0
- USD/KRW spot: 1333.21 | median Dec-26 target: 1380.00 | spot trades 3.39% below consensus; range 1280.0–1460.0
Pair-by-Pair Consensus Table
| Pair | Firm | Dec-2026 Target | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | Standard Chartered | 17.0 | bearish |
| USD/MXN | Nomura | 19.2 | bearish |
| USD/BRL | ING | 4.5 | neutral |
| USD/BRL | BNP Paribas | 5.7 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Deutsche Bank | 15.5 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Citi | 18.0 | bullish |
| USD/TRY | UBS | 43.5 | bearish |
| USD/TRY | ING | 56.3 | neutral |
| USD/INR | UBS | 83.5 | bearish |
| USD/INR | Goldman Sachs | 97.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Standard Chartered | 1280.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Where Is Consensus Most Crowded — and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/MXN and USD/INR stand out at opposite ends of the conviction spectrum. On MXN, both desks in the sample — Nomura at 19.2 and Standard Chartered at 17.0 — carry a bearish stance on the dollar, yet their targets span 2.2 figures. That internal contradiction is a warning sign: the directional label is uniform, but the magnitude of peso appreciation expected is far from settled. Spot at 18.39 sits 3.60% above the 17.75 median, meaning the consensus already prices a meaningful MXN recovery.
USD/INR is the most contentious pair in the roundup. The 19-desk range runs from 83.5 (UBS) to 97.0 (Goldman Sachs) — a 13.5-figure spread — yet both anchoring desks carry a bearish USD stance. The paradox is structural: GS sees rupee depreciation from current spot (94.95 to 97.0) while still labelling the view bearish on the dollar in a broader EM context. Spot sits 5.50% above the 90.0 median, the largest spot-to-consensus gap in the basket, flagging either a consensus that has not caught up to recent INR weakness or a genuine disagreement about RBI's tolerance for further depreciation.
USD/BRL is the tightest call. Spot at 5.07 is within 0.58% of the 5.10 median, and the 18-desk range of 4.5 to 5.7 is moderate relative to the pair's historical volatility. BNP Paribas sits at the bearish-USD extreme with a 5.7 target — implying further BRL weakness — while ING at 4.5 takes the opposite view with a neutral stance. The near-zero spot gap suggests the market has largely priced the consensus, leaving little directional edge from mean-reversion alone.
Which Pairs Are Desks Pushing for Carry?
USD/TRY is the clearest carry story in the basket, though the dispersion is substantial. The 17-desk range runs 43.5 to 56.3, a 12.8-figure spread. UBS at 43.5 is the most aggressive lira bull, implying meaningful nominal appreciation from spot at 49.53 — a view that requires Turkish inflation to decelerate materially and the CBRT to hold real rates positive long enough to attract sustained inflows. ING at 56.3 with a neutral stance effectively prices continued lira drift, consistent with carry extraction but no structural re-rating. Spot sits 1.93% below the 50.5 median, meaning the market is slightly ahead of consensus on lira weakness — a modest headwind for carry longs if the median proves correct.
USD/ZAR offers a different carry dynamic. Deutsche Bank at 15.5 is the most constructive on the rand, while Citi at 18.0 with a bullish USD stance implies rand underperformance. Spot at 16.45 sits 2.15% above the 16.10 median, suggesting the consensus leans toward rand recovery. South Africa's carry is real but historically volatile; the 2.5-figure range between the two sampled desks reflects genuine uncertainty about commodity terms of trade and fiscal trajectory rather than a clean carry consensus.
USD/KRW is the one pair where consensus implies dollar strength by year-end. Spot at 1333.21 is 3.39% below the 1380.0 median, meaning the market has not yet priced the won weakness the consensus expects. Citi at 1460.0 is the most aggressive dollar bull; Standard Chartered at 1280.0 is the most constructive on KRW. Korea's low carry relative to EM peers means this pair is driven more by current-account and risk-sentiment dynamics than yield differentials.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EM pair has the largest spot-to-consensus gap?
USD/INR, where spot at 94.95 trades 5.50% above the 90.0 December 2026 median across 19 contributing desks.
Which pair shows the widest forecast dispersion among sampled desks?
USD/INR again, with a 13.5-figure range between the lowest target of 83.5 (UBS) and the highest of 97.0 (Goldman Sachs).
Is there any pair where consensus implies dollar strength by December 2026?
Yes — USD/KRW, where the median target of 1380.0 sits 3.39% above current spot at 1333.21, implying won depreciation.
How many firms contribute to this cross-EM consensus?
The roundup draws on 20 firms in total, with coverage per pair ranging from 17 desks (USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, USD/KRW) to 19 desks (USD/INR).
→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook, including their 97.0 USD/INR target and broader EM views, at Goldman Sachs forecasts.
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