FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 30 institutional desks. No promotion.
Repo rate
6.00%
as of 2026-04-09
Next meeting
Aug 3-5
T-23d
The Reserve Bank of India is India's central bank and conducts monetary policy under a flexible inflation-targeting framework, with a primary objective of price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee meets bi-monthly (six times a year) to set the policy repo rate.
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
Repo rate
6.00%
As of 2026-04-09
INR 2026 consensus
87.00
median of 18 banks
Next macro event
Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)
| Med |
| 3.8% |
| 3.93% |
| CPI YoY (Jun) | IN | Med | — | 3.93% |
| CPI YoY (Jun) | IN | Med | 4.3% | 3.93% |
| Inflation Rate YoY (Jun) | IN | Med | 4.3% | 3.93% |
| S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul) | IN | Med | 58.4 Points | 57.1 Points |
| HSBC Services PMI (Jul) | IN | Med | 59 | 57.4 |
| HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | IN | Med | 56 | 54.2 |
| Manufacturing Production YoY (Jun) | IN | Med | 5% | 5.5% |
5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
The commentary from RBC underscores a critical moment for Canada, with efforts to boost its competitiveness in global sectors like AI and energy being paramount. Discussions from the recent RBC and…
The desk observes a compelling correlation between North Asian equity market rallies, particularly in Korea and Taiwan, and potential strengths in their respective currencies. Per the full note,…
The desk posits that India's economic growth is increasingly reliant on the prosperity of its individual states, as articulated by Dr. Poonam Gupta, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India,…
The Indian rupee is under pressure as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is reportedly stepping into the foreign exchange market to mitigate its decline against the US dollar. Per the full note from…
The desk interprets the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as a significant step towards enhancing bilateral…
Reports referencing RBI across covered research desks
The next Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy decision is scheduled for Aug 3-5. Because Reserve Bank of India sets monetary policy for the INR, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for INR exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their INR forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' INR targets shift before and after RBI decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.
Reserve Bank of India's policy lean is read from its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the INR, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for INR forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 30 major banks read the RBI path and translates it into where the INR consensus and its dispersion sit.
Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Reserve Bank of India's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their INR targets. Relative policy paths (the RBI versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which RBI actions transmit into the INR. FX Bank Forecast compares the published INR forecasts of 30 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the RBI outlook evolves.