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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
Repo rate
5.25%
as of 2026-07-23
Next meeting
Oct 5-7
T-41d
The Reserve Bank of India is India's central bank and conducts monetary policy under a flexible inflation-targeting framework, with a primary objective of price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee meets bi-monthly (six times a year) to set the policy repo rate.
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
Repo rate
5.25%
As of 2026-07-23
INR 2026 consensus
88.50
median of 20 banks
Next macro event
Industrial Production YoY (Jul)
Spot USD/INR trades 8.45% above the 20-firm Dec-26 consensus of 88.25, with a 12.5-point dispersion signalling deep…
Read research →USD/INR trades at 95.695, nearly 9.4% above the 20-firm Dec-2026 median target of 87.5, with a 12.5-point dispersion…
Read research →| Event |
|---|
| Country |
|---|
| Impact |
|---|
| Consensus |
|---|
| Previous |
|---|
| Industrial Production YoY (Jul) | IN | Med | 6% | 7.3% | |
| Manufacturing Production YoY (Jul) | IN | Med | 5.5% | 7.8% | |
| GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q2) | IN | High | 7.1% | 7.8% | |
| Gross Domestic Product YoY (Q1) | IN | Med | — | 7.8% | |
| Current Account (Q2) | IN | Med | -7.4 B | 7.1 B | |
| Inflation Rate YoY (Aug) | IN | Med | — | 4.45% | |
| CPI YoY (Aug) | IN | Med | — | 4.45% | |
| S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep) | IN | Med | 54.5 Points | — |
5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
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The desk observes a compelling correlation between North Asian equity market rallies, particularly in Korea and Taiwan, and potential strengths in their respective currencies. Per the full note,…
The desk posits that India's economic growth is increasingly reliant on the prosperity of its individual states, as articulated by Dr. Poonam Gupta, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India,…
Reports referencing RBI across covered research desks
USD/INR trades at 95.32 against a 19-firm Dec-26 median of 87.0, a 9.56% gap that reflects deep disagreement on RBI…
The next Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy decision is scheduled for Oct 5-7. Because Reserve Bank of India sets monetary policy for the INR, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for INR exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their INR forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' INR targets shift before and after RBI decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.
Reserve Bank of India's policy lean is read from its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the INR, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for INR forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 36 major banks read the RBI path and translates it into where the INR consensus and its dispersion sit.
Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Reserve Bank of India's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their INR targets. Relative policy paths (the RBI versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which RBI actions transmit into the INR. FX Bank Forecast compares the published INR forecasts of 36 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the RBI outlook evolves.