On this page · 4 sections▾
WTI crude trades at 84.67 as of August 2, 2026 — roughly 28% above where the nine-bank full oil bank forecast table consensus expects it to settle by December. The cross-firm spread of 42.0 points signals genuine disagreement about whether OPEC+ discipline, shale supply, and Chinese demand resolve bullishly or bearishly into year-end.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (WTI): 84.67
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (WTI desks only, n=9): 66.0
- Dispersion (max − min, WTI): 42.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −28.29% implied downside to median
- Most-bullish WTI desk: Mizuho at 100.0
- Most-bearish WTI desk: Macquarie at 58.0
Where Does Each Desk Stand on WTI and Brent?
The table below covers all fourteen desks in the survey. Nine benchmark against WTI; five benchmark against Brent. Consensus statistics in the snapshot are computed over the WTI desks only — Brent targets are cited separately to avoid benchmark mixing.
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Macquarie | 58.0 (WTI) | bearish |
| Bank of America | 60.0 (WTI) | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 61.0 (WTI) | bearish |
| Citi | 65.0 (Brent) | neutral |
| Wells Fargo | 65.0 (WTI) | neutral |
| ANZ | 66.0 (WTI) | neutral |
| Morgan Stanley | 70.0 (Brent) | bearish |
| HSBC | 73.0 (WTI) | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 80.0 (WTI) | neutral |
| UBS | 80.0 (Brent) | neutral |
| Westpac | 85.0 (WTI) | bearish |
| Barclays | 93.3 (Brent) | neutral |
| Mizuho | 100.0 (WTI) | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 109.0 (Brent) | bullish |
Among Brent desks, Deutsche Bank at 109.0 and Barclays at 93.3 are the structural bulls; Citi at 65.0 Brent and Morgan Stanley at 70.0 Brent sit at the bearish end of that sub-group.
Who Are the Lonely Outliers, and What Is Their Thesis?
Mizuho at 100.0 WTI is the lonely bull among the nine WTI desks. The desk's thesis rests on OPEC+ cohesion holding through Q4 and a sharper-than-expected Chinese demand recovery compressing the current inventory surplus. At 100.0, Mizuho is 34 points above the nine-bank median and 15.33 above spot — the only WTI desk projecting a meaningful rally from current levels.
Macquarie at 58.0 WTI is the lonely bear. The desk prices in accelerating US shale output — Permian break-evens in the low-to-mid $40s leave producers with wide margin to add rigs even at sub-70 WTI — combined with a Chinese demand disappointment that keeps global balances in surplus well into 2027. At 58.0, Macquarie is 8 points below the next-lowest WTI target (Bank of America at 60.0) and implies a 31% decline from spot.
The cluster of bearish-to-neutral WTI desks — J.P. Morgan at 61.0, Bank of America at 60.0, Wells Fargo at 65.0, ANZ at 66.0 — share a common framework: OPEC+ compliance erodes as higher-cost members free-ride on Saudi cuts, shale fills the gap, and Chinese petrochemical demand stays structurally subdued relative to pre-2024 trend. Goldman Sachs at 80.0 neutral and Westpac at 85.0 bearish are the closest to spot but still imply flat-to-lower outcomes. HSBC at 73.0 bullish occupies an unusual position: above the median yet still well below spot, reflecting a view that the current price overshoots fundamentals even on an optimistic demand read.
How Do the Non-Bank Benchmarks Align With the Bank Consensus?
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook prices 2026 average WTI at 76.18, with a Q4 path of 66.0 — the Q4 figure lands exactly on the nine-bank median, a rare convergence. The EIA's Q4 number implies the current 84.67 spot reflects a risk premium or positioning overhang that the fundamental supply-demand model does not support.
The FXStreet retail poll (updated July 31, 2026) reads differently across horizons: one-week at 84.0 (sideways), one-month at 84.44 (bearish), one-quarter at 85.44 (sideways). The short-dated polls are anchored near spot, consistent with a market that has not yet priced the institutional consensus downside. The one-month bearish signal is the only horizon where the retail poll aligns directionally with the bank median, though the magnitude gap remains large — 84.44 vs a bank median of 66.0.
The three-pillar framework — OPEC+ supply discipline, US shale break-evens, Chinese demand — resolves differently depending on which input dominates. If Saudi Arabia and the UAE maintain coordinated cuts through Q4, the EIA's 66.0 Q4 path looks aggressive to the downside and Mizuho's 100.0 becomes less isolated. If Permian output continues its 2025-2026 growth trajectory and Chinese apparent demand data remain soft, the Macquarie-to-JPMorgan cluster of 58–65 becomes the operative range.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current WTI price and where do banks expect it by December 2026?
WTI spot is 84.67 as of August 2, 2026. The nine-bank median WTI Dec-26 target is 66.0, implying roughly 28% downside from current levels.
Which bank has the highest WTI target and which has the lowest?
Mizuho holds the highest WTI target at 100.0; Macquarie holds the lowest at 58.0. The 42-point spread between them is the widest dispersion in the current survey.
What does the EIA STEO say about WTI for the rest of 2026?
The EIA STEO pegs 2026 average WTI at 76.18 and the Q4 path at 66.0 — the Q4 figure aligns precisely with the nine-bank median, lending institutional weight to the bearish consensus.
Are the Brent targets consistent with the WTI consensus direction?
Broadly yes, though with wider dispersion at the extremes. Deutsche Bank at 109.0 Brent and Barclays at 93.3 Brent are structural outliers on the upside; Citi at 65.0 Brent and Morgan Stanley at 70.0 Brent align with the bearish WTI cluster.
→ See the full Mizuho FX outlook for the lone WTI bull case at 100.0.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Barclays →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
Westpac →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
Mizuho →
Bank Forecast
Wellsfargo →
Bank Forecast
Macquarie →
Bank Forecast
ANZ →
Bank Forecast
HSBC →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
More from WTI
- WTI
WTI Consensus Check, Week of August 6 2026: Spot at 77.4, Median Target 66.0
WTI spot trades 17.3% above the nine-bank median Dec-26 target of 66.0, with a 42-point spread separating Mizuho's 100.0 call from Macquarie's 58.0.
- WTI
WTI Consensus Check: Spot at $74.86 Sits 13% Above Dec-26 Median — Week of August 5, 2026
WTI spot at $74.86 trades 13.42% above the nine-bank Dec-26 median of $66.00, with a $42 dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the supply path.
- WTI
WTI Consensus Check, Week of August 4, 2026: Spot at $81 vs $66 Median
WTI spot at $81.02 trades 22.76% above the nine-bank Dec-2026 median of $66.00, with a $42 range separating Mizuho's $100 bull case from Macquarie's $58 floor.
Share