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WTI crude trades at 77.4 as of the week of August 6, 2026 — sitting 17.3% above the nine-bank median December-2026 target of 66.0, with a 42-point range separating the most bullish and most bearish desks; the full oil bank forecast table captures the complete picture.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (WTI): 77.4
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (WTI desks only): 66.0
- Dispersion (max − min, WTI desks): 42.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −17.3% (spot well above median target)
- Most-bullish WTI desk: Mizuho at 100.0
- Most-bearish WTI desk: Macquarie at 58.0
Firm-by-Firm Targets: Where Does Each Desk Stand?
The table below covers all fourteen desks in the survey. The five Brent-benchmark rows are flagged; their levels are not folded into the WTI consensus statistics above.
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank (Brent) | 109.0 | bullish |
| Mizuho | 100.0 | bullish |
| Barclays (Brent) | 93.3 | neutral |
| Westpac | 85.0 | bearish |
| UBS (Brent) | 80.0 | neutral |
| Goldman Sachs | 80.0 | neutral |
| HSBC | 73.0 | bullish |
| Morgan Stanley (Brent) | 70.0 | bearish |
| ANZ | 66.0 | neutral |
| Citi (Brent) | 65.0 | neutral |
| Wells Fargo | 65.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 61.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 60.0 | bearish |
| Macquarie | 58.0 | bearish |
Why Is Spot Trading So Far Above the Bank Consensus?
Three structural forces explain the gap between current tape and year-end targets.
OPEC+ supply discipline. The alliance has repeatedly deferred unwind schedules, keeping headline barrels off the market. The market is pricing a continuation of that restraint into the second half of 2026. Most bank models, however, assign a meaningful probability to partial quota restoration — particularly from the UAE and Saudi Arabia — which compresses their year-end projections toward the low-to-mid 60s. The majority of WTI desks — J.P. Morgan at 61.0, Bank of America at 60.0, and Macquarie at 58.0 — embed a supply-return scenario that the futures strip is not yet pricing.
US shale break-evens. Permian Basin operators have guided break-even costs in the 48–55 range, meaning current prices generate strong free cash flow and incentivise incremental drilling. Bank models that weight shale supply elasticity heavily tend to cluster in the 60–66 range, anticipating that rig counts respond to price signals over a 6–9 month lag. ANZ and Wells Fargo, both at 65.0 and neutral, sit squarely in this camp.
Chinese demand. Refinery throughput data from China has been the swing variable. A property-sector drag and softer industrial activity have kept Chinese crude imports below the levels many desks assumed at the start of 2026. Goldman Sachs, neutral at 80.0, appears to embed a modest demand recovery in the second half; desks further down the table are more sceptical.
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook provides an independent anchor: the agency's 2026 average sits near 76.2, with a Q4 path converging to 66.0 — closely aligned with the bank median. The FXStreet retail poll, last updated July 31, shows a one-week read of 84.0 and a one-month read of 84.4, both flagged as sideways-to-bearish — a positioning signal rather than a fundamental forecast, but consistent with the view that near-term momentum remains elevated even as the structural outlook softens.
Which Desks Are the Outliers, and What Is Their Thesis?
Two desks stand apart from the pack.
The lonely bull: Mizuho at 100.0 (WTI). Mizuho's 100.0 target is the highest WTI print in the nine-desk survey and sits 34 points above the median. The desk's bullish stance reflects a scenario in which OPEC+ holds cuts through year-end while a Middle East risk premium re-emerges. On the Brent side, Deutsche Bank occupies the equivalent position with a 109.0 Brent target — the highest level across all fourteen desks surveyed — also stamped bullish. These two desks are pricing a supply-shock tail that the consensus treats as low-probability.
The lonely bear: Macquarie at 58.0 (WTI). Macquarie's 58.0 floor is the lowest WTI target in the survey, 8 points below the next-lowest print. The bearish call rests on accelerated OPEC+ quota restoration combined with a Chinese demand miss — a double-supply-demand squeeze that would push WTI below most operators' break-even thresholds and trigger a rig-count response only after the price damage is done.
Westpac at 85.0 is a structural anomaly: the target is above spot, yet the stance is bearish — implying the desk expects a near-term pullback from current levels before any partial recovery, or that the 85.0 level represents a ceiling rather than a directional call.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current WTI price as of August 6, 2026?
WTI spot is 77.4, placing it 17.3% above the nine-bank median December-2026 target of 66.0.
What is the bank consensus target for WTI at year-end 2026?
The median across the nine WTI-benchmark desks is 66.0 for December 2026, with a 42-point spread between the highest (Mizuho, 100.0) and lowest (Macquarie, 58.0) prints.
What does the EIA STEO say about WTI for the rest of 2026?
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook tracks a 2026 average near 76.2, with a Q4 convergence toward 66.0 — effectively corroborating the bank median without endorsing any single desk's scenario.
Are the Brent targets comparable to the WTI consensus figures?
No. The five Brent-benchmark desks — Barclays (93.3), Citi (65.0), UBS (80.0), Morgan Stanley (70.0), and Deutsche Bank (109.0) — are quoted on a different benchmark and are excluded from the WTI consensus, dispersion, and gap calculations. Brent typically trades at a structural premium to WTI, so direct comparison without adjustment is misleading.
→ See the full Mizuho FX outlook for the rationale behind the highest WTI target in this week's survey.
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