On this page · 4 sections▾
WTI crude sits at 82.4 as of the week of August 16, 2026 — roughly 24.85% above the nine-desk Dec-26 median of 66.0 tracked in the full oil bank forecast table. Across the WTI-benchmark panel, targets span a 42-point range from 58.0 to 100.0, reflecting genuine disagreement rather than minor model variance.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (WTI): 82.4
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (WTI desks only): 66.0 (median, 9 firms)
- Dispersion (max − min): 42.0 (58.0 – 100.0)
- Gap, spot vs. consensus: −24.85% (spot well above)
- Most-bullish WTI desk: Mizuho at 100.0
- Most-bearish WTI desk: Macquarie at 58.0
Where Does Each Desk Stand on WTI and Brent?
The table below covers the nine WTI-benchmark desks. Five additional desks publish Brent-denominated targets and are listed separately afterward; their levels are not folded into the consensus statistics above.
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Macquarie | 58.0 (WTI) | bearish |
| Bank of America | 60.0 (WTI) | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 61.0 (WTI) | bearish |
| Wells Fargo | 65.0 (WTI) | neutral |
| ANZ | 66.0 (WTI) | neutral |
| HSBC | 73.0 (WTI) | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 80.0 (WTI) | neutral |
| Westpac | 85.0 (WTI) | bearish |
| Mizuho | 100.0 (WTI) | bullish |
Brent-benchmark desks (excluded from WTI consensus stats):
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 70.0 (Brent) | bearish |
| Citi | 80.0 (Brent) | neutral |
| UBS | 80.0 (Brent) | neutral |
| Barclays | 96.0 (Brent) | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 109.0 (Brent) | bullish |
Note that Deutsche Bank at 109.0 Brent and Barclays at 96.0 Brent represent the structurally bullish end of the broader sell-side universe, even though those levels are not directly comparable to WTI spot.
Which Desks Are the Outliers, and What Drives the Divergence?
Mizuho is the lonely bull on the WTI panel at 100.0 — a 21.4% premium to spot and 34 points above the next-highest WTI target. The constructive case rests on OPEC+ supply discipline holding through year-end: the group's voluntary cuts, if sustained and not undermined by quota creep from the UAE or Iraq, would leave the market in deficit even against a soft Chinese demand backdrop. Mizuho's framework also assigns a relatively high probability to US shale growth stalling below consensus — Permian break-evens in the low-to-mid $50s per barrel provide a floor but not a catalyst for volume acceleration at current strip prices, and rig counts have been drifting lower since Q1 2026.
Macquarie anchors the bearish end at 58.0 — 29.6% below spot. That view is consistent with a scenario where OPEC+ compliance erodes materially in H2 2026, US shale responds to the earlier price strength with a lagged output surge, and Chinese apparent demand growth disappoints relative to the IEA's base case. Bank of America at 60.0 and J.P. Morgan at 61.0 cluster just above Macquarie, forming a bearish bloc that collectively argues the current spot premium is unsustainable once seasonal refinery demand fades in Q4.
The neutral cluster — Goldman Sachs at 80.0, ANZ at 66.0, Wells Fargo at 65.0 — reflects a range of views on Chinese demand rather than a single consensus narrative. Goldman's 80.0 target implies near-flat from spot; ANZ and Wells Fargo embed a more pronounced demand-side drag.
How Do Official Benchmarks Compare to the Bank Panel?
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook prices 2026 at an annual average of approximately 80.7, with Q4 2026 specifically at 74.0 — meaningfully below spot but above the bank-panel median of 66.0. That Q4 STEO path implies roughly 10% downside from current levels by year-end, a softer bear case than the majority of the WTI-benchmark desks.
The FXStreet retail poll (updated August 14, 2026) sits on the other side of the ledger: the one-week reading is 82.25 (bullish), the one-month is 84.31 (bullish), and the one-quarter is 85.25 (sideways). Retail positioning therefore remains constructive and broadly aligned with spot, diverging sharply from the institutional median. That gap between the FXStreet poll and the bank consensus — roughly 19 points at the one-quarter horizon — is a useful sentiment indicator: positioning has not yet capitulated to the bearish institutional view.
The combination of a bearish bank median, a constructive STEO annual average, and bullish retail polling suggests the market is in a genuine disagreement phase rather than a simple consensus drift.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current WTI price and where do banks expect it by December 2026?
WTI spot is 82.4 as of the week of August 16, 2026. The nine-desk WTI-benchmark median Dec-26 target is 66.0, implying roughly 24.85% downside if consensus proves correct.
Which bank has the highest WTI forecast and which has the lowest?
Mizuho holds the highest WTI target at 100.0; Macquarie holds the lowest at 58.0, producing a 42-point dispersion across the nine WTI-benchmark desks.
How does the EIA STEO compare to the bank consensus?
The EIA STEO 2026 annual average is approximately 80.7, with Q4 at 74.0 — above the bank-panel median of 66.0 but still implying downside from spot. The STEO represents a less aggressive bear case than most of the institutional panel.
Are Brent targets included in the 66.0 consensus figure?
No. The five Brent-benchmark desks — Morgan Stanley, Citi, UBS, Barclays, and Deutsche Bank — are reported separately and excluded from the WTI consensus, dispersion, and gap calculations to maintain benchmark comparability.
---
→ See the full Mizuho FX outlook for the most bullish WTI case on the panel, including the OPEC+ supply-discipline and shale break-even assumptions underpinning the 100.0 Dec-26 target.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Barclays →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
Westpac →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
Mizuho →
Bank Forecast
Wellsfargo →
Bank Forecast
Macquarie →
Bank Forecast
ANZ →
Bank Forecast
HSBC →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
More from WTI
- WTI
WTI Aug 2026: Spot at 82.4, Consensus at 66 — A 25% Gap
WTI spot trades at 82.4 while the nine-desk bank consensus targets 66.0 by Dec-26, a 24.85% gap that reflects deep disagreement on OPEC+ discipline and Chinese demand.
- WTI
WTI Consensus: $66 Target vs $82.40 Spot — Week of August 15, 2026
WTI trades at $82.40, nearly 25% above the nine-bank median Dec-26 target of $66, with a $42 spread separating the most bullish and bearish desks.
- WTI
WTI Consensus at $66 vs $82.36 Spot: Bank Forecasts, Week of August 14, 2026
WTI trades at $82.36, nearly 25% above the $66 Dec-2026 bank consensus, with a $42 spread separating the most bullish and bearish desks.
Share