USD/GBP — Pair Outlook
USD/GBP outlook
USD/GBP forecasts are aggregated from institutional bank research. The bank-views table below shows each desk's latest published quarterly targets for GBP along with the 1-month, 3-month, YTD, and 12-month change.
Pair analysis pages are auto-assembled from the underlying GBP forecasts plus any bank commentary mentioning USD/GBP. For a deeper writeup, the per-firm reports are linked from each row.
GBP — per-firm forecasts (relevant to USD/GBP)
| Firm | 1m | 3m | YTD | 12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | -3.5% | -3.5% | +4.6% | +4.5% |
| BNP Paribas | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.1% | +1.6% |
| Bank of America | -3.5% | -3.5% | +4.6% | +4.5% |
| Citi | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.1% | +1.6% |
| Commerzbank | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.1% | +0.3% |
| Deutsche Bank | -3.5% | -3.5% | +4.6% | +4.5% |
| Goldman Sachs | -3.5% | -3.5% | +4.6% | +4.5% |
| HSBC | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.6% | +0.8% |
| ING | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.6% | +0.8% |
| J.P. Morgan | -3.5% | -3.5% | +4.6% | +4.5% |
| Mizuho | 0.0% | 0.0% | -2.8% | -1.4% |
| Morgan Stanley | -3.5% | -3.5% | +4.6% | +4.5% |
| MUFG | -3.5% | -3.5% | +4.6% | +4.5% |
| Nomura | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.3% | +0.1% |
| RBC Capital Markets | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.3% | +0.1% |
| Société Générale | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.1% | +1.6% |
| Standard Chartered | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.1% | +1.6% |
| UBS | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.6% | +0.8% |
Recent commentary on USD/GBP
US Treasuries losing the control they had
ing· ing-think· May 19, 2026Last week we noted that we faced a period of instability for Treasuries. See it here. Since then, the US 10yr yield hit 4.6% last Friday, and today has just hit 4.65%. The overshoot and instability feared is upon us. The big driver? Higher real yields. There are reasons to fear t
GBP/USD Forecast Update from Morgan Stanley: "Upside Surprise" - Pound Sterling Live
morganstanley· google-news-gbpusd· May 19, 2026GBP/USD Forecast Update from Morgan Stanley: "Upside Surprise" Pound Sterling Live
ICYMI (Monday): Japan signals FX intervention readiness, vowing to shield US bond market
· investinglive-cb· May 19, 2026Japan stands ready to intervene against excessive yen volatility at any time, Finance Minister Katayama said at the G7, while officials confirmed Tokyo will avoid selling US Treasuries to fund any action. Earlier on this here: Japan's Finance Minister Katayama seeing speculative
FX Daily: Bearish yield curve steepening hits risk assets
ing· ing-think· May 18, 2026The sell-off in bond markets is the dominant story in global financial markets. Some worrying signs in US inflation last week have seen US Treasury yields break higher and question whether the Fed is beyond the curve on inflation. High oil prices and higher bond yields are a big
Global Rates: Energy priced and UK politics drive Bunds and Gilt yields higher
jpmorgan· jpm-at-any-rate· May 15, 2026In this podcast Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss Euro area and UK rate markets given the moves in oil prices and this week’s political events in the UK. This podcast was recorded on 15 May 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional
US dollar rebounds – yield’s renewed influence on FX
mufg· mufg-emea· May 15, 2026The US dollar is heading for its biggest weekly gain since the first week of the US-Iran conflict in early March. This week, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Julie Ellert, Head of FraBeLux FX Sales to discuss the facto
UK assets markets starting to feel the heat
· ing-think· May 15, 2026EUROPE: UK markets were under pressure on Friday as the leadership battle within the ruling Labour Party starts to open up. 30-year UK gilt yields have risen to levels last seen in early 1998 and independent sterling weakness is really starting to come through. A long hot summer
We're Exiting Our GBP/USD Short: Bank of America - Pound Sterling Live
bofa· google-news-gbpusd· May 15, 2026We're Exiting Our GBP/USD Short: Bank of America Pound Sterling Live
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.