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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 30 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 30 institutional desks. No promotion.
This page scores economic-print surprises: for each macro data release it measures the published actual against the consensus estimate — a beat or a miss — capturing both the raw deviation and the percentage surprise. It then tracks how bank forecasts reacted, mapping each surprise to the forecast revisions that followed within the post-print window.
In short, it answers the question which economic data moved the market, and how did the banks read it — ranking the most notable recent surprises and linking them to the desks that revised in response.
Print-Surprise Map
Every scheduled macro print scored against its consensus estimate, then cross-referenced with bank forecast revisions that land in the five trading days after the release. The signal isn't the surprise itself — it's which desks moved their book on it.
| Date | Country | Event | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Reacts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | MX | Producer Price Index MoM (Jun)USD/MXN bank consensus | -0.10 | -0.87 | 100%+ | 0× |
| 2d ago | MX | Producer Price Index YoY (Jun)USD/MXN bank consensus | 2.70 | 2.10 | -22.2% | 0× |
| 2d ago | MX | Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)USD/MXN bank consensus | 3.52 | 3.37 | -4.3% | 0× |
| 2d ago | MX | CPI YoY (Jun)USD/MXN bank consensus | 3.52 | 3.37 | -4.3% | 0× |
| 2d ago | MX | CPI MoM (Jun)USD/MXN bank consensus | -0.13 | -0.27 | 100%+ | 0× |
| 2d ago | MX | Inflation Rate MoM (Jun)USD/MXN bank consensus | -0.13 | -0.27 | 100%+ | 0× |
| 2d ago | MX | Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)USD/MXN bank consensus | 4.10 | 4.03 | -1.7% | 0× |
| 2d ago | MX | Core Inflation Rate MoM (Jun)USD/MXN bank consensus | 0.31 | 0.24 | -22.6% | 0× |
| 2d ago | MX | Core CPI MoM (Jun)USD/MXN bank consensus | 0.31 | 0.24 | -22.6% | 0× |
| 2d ago | UA | Inflation Rate YoY (Jun) | 8.50 | 7.20 | -15.3% | 0× |
| 2d ago | ZA | Manufacturing Production YoY (May)USD/ZAR bank consensus | -3.20 | -4.30 | -34.4% | 0× |
| 2d ago | UA | Inflation Rate MoM (Jun) | 0.90 | -0.10 | 100%+ | 0× |
| 2d ago | ZA | Manufacturing Production MoM (May)USD/ZAR bank consensus | 1.30 | 1.10 | -15.4% | 0× |
| 2d ago | EG | Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun) | 14.4 | 14.3 | -0.7% | 0× |
| 2d ago | EG | Core CPI YoY (Jun) | 14.4 | 14.3 | -0.7% | 0× |
| 2d ago | IE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)EUR/USD bank consensus | 3.30 | 3.20 | -3.0% | 8× |
| 2d ago | IE | HICP YoY (Jun)EUR/USD bank consensus | 3.30 | 3.20 | -3.0% | 8× |
| 2d ago | RS | Interest Rate Decision | 5.75 | 5.75 | +0.0% | 0× |
| 2d ago | IE | Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)EUR/USD bank consensus | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.0% | 8× |
| 2d ago | IE | Inflation Rate MoM (Jun)EUR/USD bank consensus | 0.30 | 0.30 | +0.0% | 8× |
| 2d ago | IE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Jun)EUR/USD bank consensus | 0.30 | 0.30 | +0.0% | 8× |
| 2d ago | IE | HICP MoM (Jun)EUR/USD bank consensus | 0.30 | 0.30 | +0.0% | 8× |
| 2d ago | GR | Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)EUR/USD bank consensus | 4.20 | 4.40 | +4.8% | 8× |
| 2d ago | GR | Inflation Rate MoM (Jun)EUR/USD bank consensus | -0.10 | 0.00 | +100%+ | 8× |
| 2d ago | GR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)EUR/USD bank consensus | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.0% | 8× |
| 2d ago | TW | Exports YoY (Jun) | 48.6 | 40.3 | -17.1% | 0× |
| 2d ago | TW | Imports YoY (Jun) | 47.8 | 51.8 | +8.4% | 0× |
| 2d ago | NA | Inflation Rate MoM (Jun) | 0.80 | 0.30 | -62.5% | 0× |
| 2d ago | NA | Inflation Rate YoY (Jun) | 4.30 | 4.40 | +2.3% | 0× |
| 2d ago | CZ | Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.0% | 0× |
Yes. Every scheduled macro release is scored against its consensus estimate, capturing both the raw deviation and the percentage surprise between the published actual and the forecast. The scoring spans the global macro calendar — growth, inflation, labour and central-bank prints across the major currency blocs — and the most recent prints are published free at /surprises.
Yes. Each scored surprise is mapped to the bank forecast revisions that landed within the five trading days after the release, so you can see which prints actually moved desks and how many revisions followed. The signal is not the surprise itself — it is which banks changed their book in response to it.
An economic-print surprise is the gap between a data release’s published actual value and the consensus estimate analysts expected beforehand. A print that comes in above estimate is a beat; below estimate is a miss. FX Bank Forecast scores each release on both the raw deviation and the percentage surprise, so the size and direction of every beat or miss is directly comparable across indicators.
The /surprises page ranks the most notable recent surprises — high-impact releases (CPI, GDP, PCE, payrolls) first, then by how far each deviated from consensus — alongside a chronological feed of scored releases showing actual, estimate, surprise and the count of bank forecast revisions that followed. That linkage answers not just which data surprised, but which surprises actually moved bank desks to revise their forecasts.
Yes. The /surprises page is free and publicly accessible, showing the latest scored prints and the biggest recent surprises with their bank-reaction counts. Deeper drilldowns — the full historical archive and the bank reaction-speed leaderboard — are available to subscribers.