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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
This page scores economic-print surprises: for each macro data release it measures the published actual against the consensus estimate — a beat or a miss — capturing both the raw deviation and the percentage surprise. It then tracks how bank forecasts reacted, mapping each surprise to the forecast revisions that followed within the post-print window.
In short, it answers the question which economic data moved the market, and how did the banks read it — ranking the most notable recent surprises and linking them to the desks that revised in response.
Print-Surprise Map
Every scheduled macro print scored against its consensus estimate, then cross-referenced with bank forecast revisions that land in the five trading days after the release. The signal isn't the surprise itself — it's which desks moved their book on it.
| Date | Country | Event | Surprise | 1D Move | Reacts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -18d ago | TR | Balance of Trade (Sep)USD/TRY bank consensus | +0.0% | — | |
| -13d ago | 🇯🇵 JP | Inflation Rate YoY (Sep)USD/JPY bank consensus | +50.0% | — | |
| today | RU | Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) | -1.6% | — | |
| today | RU | Inflation Rate MoM (Sep) | -25.0% | — | |
| today | 🇺🇸 US | Michigan Current Conditions (Oct)USD bank consensus | -11.5% | — | |
| today | 🇺🇸 US | Michigan Consumer Expectations (Oct)USD bank consensus | +3.1% | — | |
| today | 🇺🇸 US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)USD bank consensus | -2.7% | — | |
| today | 🇺🇸 US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations (Oct)USD bank consensus | +0.0% | — | |
| today | 🇺🇸 US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (Oct)USD bank consensus | +0.0% | — | |
| today | BY | Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) | +0.0% | — | |
| today | 🇨🇦 CA | Average Hourly Wages YoY (Sep)USD/CAD bank consensus | -23.3% | CAD -0.23% | |
| today | 🇨🇦 CA | Participation Rate (Sep)USD/CAD bank consensus | -0.8% | CAD -0.23% | |
| today | 🇨🇦 CA | Unemployment Rate (Sep)USD/CAD bank consensus | +0.0% | CAD -0.23% | |
| today | BR | Inflation Rate MoM (Sep)USD/BRL bank consensus | +12.3% | BRL +0.40% | |
| today | BR | Inflation Rate YoY (Sep)USD/BRL bank consensus | +1.8% | BRL +0.40% | |
| today | UA | Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) | +20.5% | — | |
| today | UA | Inflation Rate MoM (Sep) | Δ+1.60 | — | |
| today | UG | GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q2) | +4.6% | — | |
| today | GR | Industrial Production YoY (Aug)EUR/USD bank consensus | Δ+6.10 | flat | 1× |
| today | MT | Industrial Production YoY (Aug)EUR/USD bank consensus | +96.2% | flat | 1× |
| today | GR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY (Sep)EUR/USD bank consensus | +41.7% | flat | 1× |
| today | GR | Inflation Rate MoM (Sep)EUR/USD bank consensus | Δ+1.40 | flat | 1× |
| today | GR | Inflation Rate YoY (Sep)EUR/USD bank consensus | +35.1% | flat | 1× |
| today | CY | Construction Output YoY (Q2)EUR/USD bank consensus | +10.0% | flat | 1× |
| today | MZ | Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) | -21.1% | — | |
| today | SI | Industrial Production YoY (Aug)EUR/USD bank consensus | +92.0% | flat | 1× |
| yesterday | 🇮🇹 IT | Industrial Production MoM (Aug)EUR/USD bank consensus | Δ-1.30 | flat | 1× |
| yesterday | BG | Industrial Production MoM (Aug) | -63.2% | — | |
| yesterday | 🇮🇹 IT | Industrial Production YoY (Aug)EUR/USD bank consensus | Δ+0.30 | flat | 1× |
| yesterday | BG | Industrial Production YoY (Aug) | +5.3% | — |
Yes. Every scheduled macro release is scored against its consensus estimate, capturing both the raw deviation and the percentage surprise between the published actual and the forecast. The scoring spans the global macro calendar — growth, inflation, labour and central-bank prints across the major currency blocs — and the most recent prints are published free at /surprises.
Yes. Each scored surprise is mapped to the bank forecast revisions that landed within the five trading days after the release, so you can see which prints actually moved desks and how many revisions followed. The signal is not the surprise itself — it is which banks changed their book in response to it.
An economic-print surprise is the gap between a data release’s published actual value and the consensus estimate analysts expected beforehand. A print that comes in above estimate is a beat; below estimate is a miss. FX Bank Forecast scores each release on both the raw deviation and the percentage surprise, so the size and direction of every beat or miss is directly comparable across indicators.
The /surprises page ranks the most notable recent surprises — high-impact releases (CPI, GDP, PCE, payrolls) first, then by how far each deviated from consensus — alongside a chronological feed of scored releases showing actual, estimate, surprise and the count of bank forecast revisions that followed. That linkage answers not just which data surprised, but which surprises actually moved bank desks to revise their forecasts.
Yes. The /surprises page is free and publicly accessible, showing the latest scored prints and the biggest recent surprises with their bank-reaction counts. Deeper drilldowns — the full historical archive and the bank reaction-speed leaderboard — are available to subscribers.