Print-Surprise Map
Which prints surprised the consensus — and who reacted
Every scheduled macro print scored against its consensus estimate, then cross-referenced with bank forecast revisions that land in the five trading days after the release. The signal isn't the surprise itself — it's which desks moved their book on it.
Biggest misses, last 30 days
ranked by |surprise %|- 1RUProducer Price Index YoY (Apr)1w ago · RUB · lowactual 5.50est -0.10+5600%0×
- 2🇮🇹 ITIndustrial Sales YoY (Mar)today · EUR · lowactual 4.40est 0.10+4300%0×
- 3HUIndustrial Production YoY (Mar)3w ago · HUF · lowactual 6.70est 0.20+3250%0×
- 4🇺🇸 USEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Apr/24)4w ago · USD · mediumactual -6.23est -0.20-3017%0×
- 5TRRetail Sales MoM (Mar)2w ago · TRY · lowactual 2.60est 0.10+2500%40×
- 6UKConstruction Orders YoY (Q1)1w ago · GBP · lowactual -11.9est 0.50-2480%8×
- 7PSInflation Rate YoY (Apr)1w ago · ILS · lowactual -21.8est 1.00-2278%4×
- 8BGIndustrial Production MoM (Mar)2w ago · BGN · lowactual 5.80est -0.30+2033%0×
- 9PLProducer Price Index YoY (Apr)6d ago · PLN · lowactual 1.90est -0.10+2000%0×
- 10🇩🇪 DERetail Sales MoM (Mar)3w ago · EUR · mediumactual -2.00est -0.10-1900%32×
Recent prints
latest 30| Date | Country | Event | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Reacts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2d ago | 🇯🇵 JP | Industrial Production MoM (Apr) | -1.00 | 2.10 | +310% | 0× |
| -1d ago | 🇺🇸 US | GDP Price Index QoQ (Q1) | 4.50 | 3.60 | -20.0% | 0× |
| -1d ago | 🇪🇺 EU | Economic Sentiment (May) | 92.8 | -9.10 | -110% | 0× |
| today | NO | GDP Growth Mainland QoQ (Q1) | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.0% | 0× |
| today | MK | Retail Sales YoY (Apr) | 9.00 | 2.10 | -76.7% | 0× |
| today | MT | Producer Price Index YoY (Apr) | 1.50 | 0.90 | -40.0% | 0× |
| today | IS | Unemployment Rate (Apr) | 5.90 | 5.80 | -1.7% | 0× |
| today | 🇨🇭 CH | Economic Sentiment Index (May) | -24.0 | -11.1 | +53.8% | 0× |
| today | 🇮🇹 IT | Industrial Sales YoY (Mar) | 0.10 | 4.40 | +4300% | 0× |
| today | 🇮🇹 IT | Industrial Sales MoM (Mar) | -0.40 | 2.00 | +600% | 0× |
| today | AT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May) | 50.7 | 51.7 | +2.0% | 0× |
| today | 🇫🇷 FR | Consumer Confidence (May) | 83.0 | 82.0 | -1.2% | 0× |
| today | FI | Business Confidence (May) | -2.00 | 3.00 | +250% | 0× |
| today | FI | Consumer Confidence (May) | -14.0 | -10.5 | +25.0% | 0× |
| today | FI | Unemployment Rate (Apr) | 11.5 | 11.6 | +0.9% | 0× |
| today | 🇪🇺 EU | New Car Sales YoY (Apr) | 6.60 | 5.10 | -22.7% | 0× |
| today | TW | Consumer Confidence (May) | 62.9 | 62.1 | -1.3% | 0× |
| today | 🇳🇿 NZ | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 0.0% | 0× |
| today | 🇨🇳 CN | Industrial Profits YoY (Apr) | 12.0 | 18.2 | +51.7% | 0× |
| today | 🇦🇺 AU | Construction Work Done QoQ (Q1) | 0.80 | 3.40 | +325% | 0× |
| today | 🇦🇺 AU | CPI (Apr) | 103.2 | 102.8 | -0.4% | 0× |
| today | 🇦🇺 AU | Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) | 0.60 | 0.40 | -33.3% | 0× |
| today | 🇦🇺 AU | Inflation Rate YoY (Apr) | 4.40 | 4.20 | -4.5% | 0× |
| today | 🇦🇺 AU | CPI MoM (Apr) | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.0% | 0× |
| today | 🇦🇺 AU | Consumer Price Index (Q2) | 3.40 | 3.40 | 0.0% | 0× |
| today | 🇦🇺 AU | CPI YoY (Apr) | 3.40 | 3.40 | 0.0% | 0× |
| today | 🇦🇺 AU | Westpac Leading Index MoM (Apr) | -0.30 | 0.00 | +100% | 0× |
| today | KR | Business Confidence (May) | 73.0 | 80.0 | +9.6% | 0× |
| today | UY | Interest Rate Decision | 5.75 | 5.75 | 0.0% | 0× |
| yesterday | 🇺🇸 US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May) | -1.00 | 0.40 | +140% | 0× |
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