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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.

Policy Interventionism in Markets

Backed by 2 desks

As central banks pivot towards more active engagement in financial markets, the implications for asset prices and volatility become pronounced. This transformation signals a shift in how monetary policy impacts financial conditions and investment strategies.

Each desk’s stance

Bank of America

Fed policy uncertainty as key market driver — Jackson Hole vs July FOMC: which Warsh is the real one?

Bank of America

Bessent's Put — Treasury buybacks are EM-positive regardless of outcome

Bank of America

Central bank policy credibility and FX — Political pressure on BOJ challenges yen stabilization assumptions

Bank of America

Treasury buybacks adding to rates uncertainty — First large 10-year-plus buyback under new max amounts

Bank of America

Fed hawkishness and USD range — Hawkish Fed not yet sufficient for new dollar highs

Bank of America

Walsh's Call — Hawkish Fed Headwind — More hikes are a headwind for EM rates and spreads but acceptable for EM carry

Bank of America

Hyperscaler IG supply crowding out duration demand

Bank of America

Midterm Elections Risk Channel — Elections affect EM via dollar, oil prices, and equity markets

Bank of America

BOJ balance sheet normalization — Among fastest pace of shrinkage among major central banks

Bank of America

Constructive on long-end JGBs — Supply-demand dynamics outweigh behind-the-curve risks

Bank of America

EM Monetary Policy — High Inflation Keeps Central Banks Hawkish — Energy and food prices drive persistent EM inflation

Standard Chartered

Policy turning more interventionist — Fed stepping back while US Treasury steps up

Standard Chartered

Higher-for-longer global bond yields — Fiscal deterioration removes the yield anchor

Standard Chartered

EM growth resilience amid inflation risks — Strong inflows and trade offset by commodity and El Nino risks

Standard Chartered

Rise of South-South trade and services trade — Structural drivers supporting global trade resilience

What’s driving this thesis

Monetary policy shifts
Market stability measures
Investment climate changes
Rate adjustments

The specific trades, targets and full rationale behind this thesis are on the trades board. See the full cross-bank macro-theme board for every narrative the desks are trading.