Macro Themes Across the Street
The structural narratives driving FX strategy at the major investment banks — the “why” behind their currency calls. 42 themes from 8 banks, side by side. The trades, targets, and full rationale behind each theme are on the trades board.
Each desk's macro themes
JPM
- Look out below — Maintain USD shorts
- Europe continues to shine — Regional RV and fiscal differentiation
- Challenging the guardians of the JPY galaxy — Bearish JPY on structural issues
- Tax man still lurking — Fiscal RV basket trades
- Fiat gets trapped in 'da basement' — Debasement theme via FX/commodity duals
- Riding the wAIve — AI trade is the bullish carry trade in FX
- Carry on — DM-funded EM carry
GS
- Different Dollar Downside — Selective USD shorts, not broad-based
- Euro Structural Re-rating — Long EUR on fiscal and defense spending
- Yen Recovery Trade — Long JPY on BOJ normalization
- Commodity FX Carry — Long AUD, NOK on terms of trade and yield
- EM Selective Carry — Long BRL, ZAR on carry and fundamentals
ING
- Looking Beyond the Dollar — Broad USD weakness trades
- Euro Fiscal Momentum — Long EUR on structural tailwinds
- Antipodean Carry — Long AUD and NZD on yield and valuation
- Scandi Value — Long NOK and SEK on deep undervaluation
- EM Carry in Low Vol — Selective EM longs in benign environment
MS
- USD Bear Regime — Short USD in first half of 2026
- Sterling Outperformance — GBP is our top G10 pick for 2026
- Yen Normalization — Long JPY on BoJ rate hikes
- Swiss Franc Fade — CHF weakening as Europe grows
- H2 Dollar Recovery — Tactical USD longs in Q3-Q4
MUFG
- Post-Peak USD — Broad USD weakness throughout 2026
- European Fiscal Renaissance — Long EUR on German spending
- Yen Mean Reversion — Long JPY on BoJ normalization
- Commodity Currency Tailwinds — Long AUD, NOK on commodity recovery
- EM Carry Harvest — Funded by low G10 vol
BofA
- Structural Dollar Headwinds — Twin deficits weigh on USD
- European Renaissance — EUR/NOK/SEK on fiscal stimulus
- EM High Beta — Long ZAR, BRL carry
- Asia Rebalancing — Long KRW, INR on trade flows
- Yen Tactical Recovery — JPY from carry unwind
DB
- The Great Rotation — Massive capital outflows from USD
- German Fiscal Supercycle — EUR on €1tn infrastructure
- Yen's Revenge — JPY strongest conviction trade
- Scandi Leverage — NOK/SEK high beta to Europe
- EM Re-Rating — Broad EM longs
BARC
- Navigating the Turn — Selective USD shorts
- Sterling Renaissance — GBP top pick on fiscal clarity
- EUR Range Trade — EUR/USD bounded
- EM Carry Selective — Long TRY, ZAR funded by JPY
- Commodity Upside — AUD/NOK on commodity demand
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.