Question 1

Which bank has the best FX forecast accuracy?

Accepted Answer

There is no single bank that is most accurate across every currency and every market condition. Accuracy is regime-dependent: a bank that excels when volatility is low and the dollar is trending may underperform when markets turn choppy or range-bound. This page ranks banks by how accurately they have forecast the major currency pairs within the regime in effect right now, so the leaders reflect current conditions rather than a long-run average.

Question 2

Which bank calls the US dollar best?

Accepted Answer

The bank that calls the US dollar best depends on whether the dollar is strengthening, weakening, or moving sideways, and on how volatile the market is. We classify the current dollar trend and volatility into a market regime, then rank banks by their directional accuracy on dollar pairs within that regime. Because the regime shifts over time, the leader for calling the dollar changes too — which is why we rank for the conditions happening now.

Question 3

Who forecasts EUR/USD most accurately?

Accepted Answer

The most accurate EUR/USD forecaster is whichever bank has the strongest directional accuracy in the current market regime, and that varies as volatility and the dollar trend change. This page ranks banks by their directional accuracy across the major currency pairs — EUR/USD among them — in the regime in effect right now, rather than naming one bank for all time.

#	Bank	Directional accuracy	Forecasts
1	RBC	82%	17
2	NMR	71%	17
3	Mizuho	71%	17
4	UBS	65%	17
5	MS	67%	36
6	ING	62%	34
7	BARC	61%	36
8	JPM	59%	34
9	BNP	59%	17
10	StanChart	59%	17
11	GS	56%	36
12	SG	53%	17
13	BofA	53%	36
14	Citi	52%	21
15	DB	44%	34
16	MUFG	41%	34
17	HSBC	33%	21
18	CBK	24%	17

Which bank to follow in the current FX regime

mixed

Banks ranked for the current regime

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