Loading…
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Institutional FX coverage in your inbox
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
Overnight rate
6.50%
as of 2026-10-06
Next meeting
Nov 5
T-26d
The Banco de México conducts monetary policy for Mexico with the primary objective of maintaining the stability of the purchasing power of the national currency. The Governing Board holds eight scheduled monetary policy decision meetings per year, with decisions announced on Thursdays.
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
Overnight rate
6.50%
As of 2026-10-06
MXN 2026 consensus
17.75
median of 18 banks
MXN net longs (CFTC)
74,927
latest as of
Next macro event
Balance of Trade (Sep)
USD/MXN trades 1.28% above the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 17.75, with a 2.20-point dispersion range signalling unusually…
Read research →USD/MXN trades at 17.23, roughly 3.5% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 17.85, as Banxico prepares its September 24…
Read research →| Date | Event | Country | Impact | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade (Sep) | MX | Med | 2.5 B | 0.605 B | |
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3) | MX | Med | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3) | MX | Med | 1.7% | 2.1% | |
| Business Confidence (Oct) | MX | Med | — | 48% | |
| Consumer Confidence (Oct) | MX | Med | — | 45.1% | |
| Interest Rate Decision | MX | Med | — | 6.5% | |
| Inflation Rate YoY (Oct) | MX | Med | — | 3.45% | |
| Inflation Rate MoM (Oct) | MX | Med | — | 0.42% |
5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
The desk interprets recent market sentiment in Latin America, particularly concerning Brazil and Mexico's monetary policy outlook, as one of reduced optimism for interest rate cuts. Per the full note…
The desk interprets Banxico's recent rate cut as a cautious step towards easing monetary policy, reflecting a divided board on the decision. Per the full note [source], while the benchmark interest…
Global currency divergence: Banxico, BoJ and ECB chart independent paths from the Fed Investing.com Canada
Global currency divergence: Banxico, BoJ and ECB chart independent paths from the Fed Investing.com UK
Citi Survey Sees Banxico Holding Rates at 6.50% Through 2027, Peso Path Mixed vtmarkets.com
Non-commercial net longs over the past 8 weeks. Latest report: for Banxico
Latest net
74,927
MXN non-commercial contracts
WoW change
-5,660
8-week trend
oldest → newest
Reports referencing Banxico across covered research desks
USD/MXN trades 5.4% below the 19-firm Dec-26 consensus of 17.90, with a 2.20-figure dispersion that reflects sharply…
The next Banco de México (Banxico) policy decision is scheduled for Nov 5. Because Banco de México sets monetary policy for the MXN, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for MXN exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their MXN forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' MXN targets shift before and after Banxico decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.
Banco de México's policy lean is read from its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the MXN, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for MXN forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 38 major banks read the Banxico path and translates it into where the MXN consensus and its dispersion sit.
Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Banco de México's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their MXN targets. Relative policy paths (the Banxico versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which Banxico actions transmit into the MXN. FX Bank Forecast compares the published MXN forecasts of 38 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the Banxico outlook evolves.