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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
Reference rate
3.75%
as of 2026-10-06
Next meeting
Nov 4
T-25d
Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) is Poland's central bank, with a constitutional mandate to maintain the value of the Polish złoty. The Monetary Policy Council sets the NBP reference rate at roughly monthly meetings on a pre-announced schedule.
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
Reference rate
3.75%
As of 2026-10-06
PLN 2026 consensus
3.45
median of 17 banks
Next macro event
Unemployment Rate (Sep)
| Consensus |
|---|
| Previous |
|---|
| Unemployment Rate (Sep) | PL | Med | 5.8% | 5.8% | |
| Inflation Rate YoY (Oct) | PL | Med | 4.2% | 3.4% | |
| Interest Rate Decision (Nov) | PL | Med | — | — |
5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
The desk argues that Poland's central bank is likely to delay interest rate hikes despite rising inflation risk due to geopolitical tensions. Per the full note from ing-think, NBP Governor Adam…
Per the full note from ing-think, the National Bank of Poland kept its reference rate at 3.75% in October, and the desk argues this on-hold stance can persist for several months despite headline…
The current commentary posits that escalating energy prices may compel the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to implement a 50 basis point rate hike by early 2027. As per the full note from ing-think,…
The desk posits that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) will maintain its interest rates until at least mid-2027, despite indications from Governor Adam Glapiński of a less dovish stance amid rising…
The desk interprets the National Bank of Poland's recent shift towards a more hawkish stance as a significant signal for potential monetary tightening. Per the full note [source], the central bank's…
Reports referencing NBP across covered research desks
The next Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) policy decision is scheduled for Nov 4. Because Narodowy Bank Polski sets monetary policy for the PLN, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for PLN exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their PLN forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' PLN targets shift before and after NBP decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.
Narodowy Bank Polski's policy lean is read from its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the PLN, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for PLN forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 38 major banks read the NBP path and translates it into where the PLN consensus and its dispersion sit.
Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Narodowy Bank Polski's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their PLN targets. Relative policy paths (the NBP versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which NBP actions transmit into the PLN. FX Bank Forecast compares the published PLN forecasts of 38 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the NBP outlook evolves.