A less than grand reopening – episode 2
From the original
It is now evident that the US economy is in the midst of the most severe contraction in the post-World War II era, one which could produce a record quarterly contraction in output in the second quarter and an unemployment rate above 17% in April. The path beyond the Q2 contractio
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Global H2-23 Outlook Podcast – Balancing on the summit
The desk interprets the current economic landscape as a precarious balancing act for the US, with the potential for recession looming amidst tight monetary policy and persistent inflation. Per the full note [source], while the US banking sector may have stabilized, the broader economic challenges remain significant, particularly as growth expectations pivot towards emerging markets like India and the ASEAN region. This shift suggests a recalibration of risk and opportunity in the FX space, particularly for currencies tied to these emerging economies. Our consensus targets reflect a cautious outlook, with a focus on how these dynamics will influence currency movements in the second half of 2023.