COVID-19 and the Impact of US Jobs – episode 3
From the original
After shrugging off a historic plunge in April employment, market participants will likely need to digest further record-setting monthly declines in core CPI inflation as well as April retail sales and industrial production. However, with financial markets seemingly numb to the b
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Global H2-23 Outlook Podcast – Balancing on the summit
The desk interprets the current economic landscape as a precarious balancing act for the US, with the potential for recession looming amidst tight monetary policy and persistent inflation. Per the full note [source], while the US banking sector may have stabilized, the broader economic challenges remain significant, particularly as growth expectations pivot towards emerging markets like India and the ASEAN region. This shift suggests a recalibration of risk and opportunity in the FX space, particularly for currencies tied to these emerging economies. Our consensus targets reflect a cautious outlook, with a focus on how these dynamics will influence currency movements in the second half of 2023.