Analysts split on Fed path after June hold, with December hike odds near 50%
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The divergence between a hold-all-year base case and a near-coin-flip December hike probability reflects the genuine uncertainty Warsh has introduced by removing forward guidance. Without a Fed-provided path, each inflation and payrolls print now carries more weight, and the rang
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4 itemsWarsh leaves markets guessing as Fed framework overhaul raises more questions than answers
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The Fed will cut, stay unchanged, or raise rates'
Per the full note [source], the Fed minutes revealed a surprisingly broad range of views, including explicit mention of rate hikes, which markets had not priced. The desk highlights that this hawkish tilt reduces the probability of near-term cuts, but the overarching caveat—dependent on inflation persistence—preserves optionality. With two-year yields edging higher and the labour market deemed stable by most members, the near-term path is data-dependent rather than directionally clear.