Barclays Pound To Euro Forecast 2026: GBP/EUR To See 1.1630 By Early 2027 - Exchange Rates Org UK

What the desk is arguing

Barclays' forecast for GBP/EUR suggests a robust appreciation of the pound against the euro, citing improving economic indicators in the UK compared to a deteriorating situation in the Eurozone. They expect that UK monetary policy and recovery dynamics will support this appreciation, especially as the market begins to price in these economic fundamentals.

In contrast, Barclays appears to dismiss the potential for significant disruptions in the UK economy or immediate aggressive monetary actions from the European Central Bank that could threaten this trajectory. The forecast instead suggests a gradual recovery in UK confidence and consumption coupled with euro-area headwinds as a dominant narrative leading into 2027.

Where it sits in our coverage

Currently, our consensus target for GBP/EUR stands at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Barclays' more optimistic forecast at 1.1630 indicates a divergence from our overall outlook, which reflects caution about the volatility in both economies and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

• JPMorgan: Target of 1.10 by Dec-26
• Goldman Sachs: Target of 1.08 by Dec-26
• Deutsche Bank: Target of 1.06 by Dec-26

How other firms see it

Other institutions maintain a more conservative view on GBP/EUR, aligning with our consensus or staying within a narrower range of targets. Specifically, bofa anticipates a lower forecast, setting their target at 1.04, reflecting concerns about the longevity of any UK economic recovery.

• bofa: 1.04 by Mar-26
• Goldman Sachs: 1.08 by Dec-26
• Deutsche Bank: 1.06 by Dec-26