Barclays Pound To Euro Forecast 2026: GBP/EUR To See 1.1630 By Early 2027 - Forex Factory
At a Glance
Barclays has projected that the GBP/EUR exchange rate will reach 1.1630 by early 2027, driven by factors such as the UK's economic resilience and divergence in monetary policies between the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. This forecast suggests a bullish outlook on the pound relative to the euro, reflecting a potential recovery in the UK's economic performance that may support the currency's appreciation against its European counterpart.
Key Takeaways
- 01Barclays predicts GBP/EUR to reach 1.1630 by early 2027.
- 02This forecast implies a bullish stance due to the UK's economic resilience.
- 03The outlook diverges markedly from our consensus target of 1.075.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
Barclays anticipates a strengthening of the British pound against the euro, with a target of 1.1630 by early 2027. This forecast is underpinned by expectations of a resilient UK economy and a potential divergence in central bank policies which could favor the pound as the Bank of England may adopt a more hawkish stance compared to the ECB.
The desk implicitly rejects scenarios where continued economic headwinds or geopolitical uncertainties could impede the pound’s recovery. This projection seems cautious in light of ongoing inflationary pressures within both the UK and Eurozone, which could impose risks on the expected appreciation of the GBP against the EUR.
Where it sits in our coverage
Currently, our consensus target for GBP/EUR stands at 1.075, with a firm spread ranging from 1.04 to 1.12. This places Barclays' forecast significantly higher than our internal consensus, suggesting a more optimistic view on the performance of the pound relative to the euro than what is reflected in the market.
Specific firm projections include: - JPMorgan: Target of 1.10 by Mar-26 - BNP Paribas: Target of 1.05 by Mar-26 - Goldman Sachs: Target of 1.08 by Dec-26 This mix shows that while Barclays is optimistic, others are more cautious, indicating a divergence in expectations across firms.
How other firms see it
The outlook for GBP/EUR among firms shows varied sentiment. While JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs express some alignment with an upward trajectory, others like BofA present a contrary view, projecting a lower value for GBP/EUR by early 2026, reflecting concerns about the economic environment.
Firms with contrasting views include: - BofA: Projecting 1.04, emphasizing risks related to UK economic stability. - Deutsche Bank: Stating a target of 1.06, citing similar uncertainties in the Eurozone.
Market Implications
If Barclays' forecast plays out, this could lead to significant inflows into GBP-denominated assets as market participants adjust their positions in anticipation of a stronger pound.
From the original
<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxPN2FFU0NIc3BBOHNVb1JfVGRRSl91WW9JMzFTYmVtUkw0dHoxMHREQ2JvejFaMVBMZFFaeDhsNU14S3Ztb2ppc2RjRmJieS1nSlZoNjJ2WHpidE9yaUJsVFVKRzVOZkJzTThtd2lWMWFCT1BvSGx5a1plUmgxZlBtREwzMDBlaloydERrRERyeFpyQdIBlwFBVV95cUxPaFp6MmZ0aVF0LVRNT1
Related speeches
4 itemsBarclays Pound To Euro Forecast 2026: GBP/EUR To See 1.1630 By Early 2027 - Exchange Rates Org UK
Barclays projects a bullish outlook for the GBP/EUR pair, forecasting a rise to 1.1630 by early 2027. This outlook hinges on anticipated stabilization in the UK’s economic landscape and ongoing challenges within the Eurozone, potentially making the pound a more attractive currency for investors seeking yield amid economic recovery.
Pound to Rebound Against Euro in 2026: Barclays - Pound Sterling Live
Barclays anticipates a rebound of the British Pound against the Euro by 2026, suggesting an optimistic outlook for GBP as it navigates through current economic challenges. This prediction reflects underlying confidence in the UK's macroeconomic stability, supported by potential growth measures and policy adjustments that may foster an environment conducive to currency appreciation.
More from GOOGLE NEWS · USD/JPY
5 items- GOOGLE NEWS · USD/JPY
US Dollar To Yen FX Forecast: JPY Risks Point Towards 170 - Crédit Agricole - Exchange Rates UK
- GOOGLE NEWS · USD/JPY
Bank of America: For the First Time in Years, We Didn't Meet a Single Yen Bull During our Mid-Year Investor Meetings - eFXdata
- GOOGLE NEWS · USD/JPY
Currencies Forecast: Interest Rate Differentials Drive US Dollar Resilience - Yahoo Finance
- GOOGLE NEWS · USD/JPY