FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
See how the Czech National Bank outlook moves the CZK bank consensus across 35 desks
View Czech National Bank outlookFrom the original
https://think.ing.com/articles/cnb-june-meeting-poised-to-be-live-while-reasoning-will-be-key/
The desk expects the Czech National Bank (CNB) to maintain its policy rate at 3.75% in the upcoming meeting, reflecting a cautious approach amid rising input costs and geopolitical uncertainties impacting economic performance. Per the full note from ING, the combination of meager growth—real GDP expanded just 0.4% QoQ in Q2 2026—and an uptick in unemployment to 3.3% in June supports a steady rates stance, especially given that inflation is not projected to accelerate uncontrollably despite higher oil prices. With the economy running below potential, risks from global turmoil further complicate the outlook, casting doubt on the near-term GDP forecast and primarily burdening Czech exporters. This emphasizes the current environment, where the CNB seems to prioritize stability over aggressive monetary adjustments, which aligns with our centralized expectations for this currency space.