Dollar Depreciation Could Deepen Before a Rebound - Morgan Stanley
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Dollar Depreciation Could Deepen Before a Rebound Morgan Stanley
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Morgan Stanley: Dollar To Lose 9% By Mid-2026, EUR/USD Forecast 1.25 - Exchange Rates UK
The desk interprets Morgan Stanley's call as a significant depreciation forecast for the U.S. dollar, projecting a 9% decline by mid-2026, which aligns with a EUR/USD target of 1.25. This outlook suggests increasing bearish sentiment on the dollar amid potential shifts in monetary policy dynamics. Per the full note, the expected depreciation of the dollar is attributed to various macroeconomic factors, which could impact investor sentiment and positioning. With current spot levels for EUR/USD at 1.1500, this forecast suggests substantial upside potential, moving against a backdrop of diverging monetary policies between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
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The desk interprets Goldman Sachs' analysis of a diminishing supply shock in the USD outlook as indicative of delayed weakness in the dollar. Per the full note [source], with supply concerns easing, traders should be prepared for a more gradual depreciation path for the dollar rather than an immediate decline. This thesis finds resonance amid near-term economic indicators suggesting that shifts in supply chains could mitigate inflationary pressures, allowing for a more stable dollar environment. As we look ahead, the absence of significant catalyzing events in the upcoming weeks provides the backdrop for such a gradual adjustment in dollar value.
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