Morgan Stanley: Dollar To Lose 9% By Mid-2026, EUR/USD Forecast 1.25 - Exchange Rates UK
At a Glance
The desk interprets Morgan Stanley's call as a significant depreciation forecast for the U.S. dollar, projecting a 9% decline by mid-2026, which aligns with a EUR/USD target of 1.25. This outlook suggests increasing bearish sentiment on the dollar amid potential shifts in monetary policy dynamics. Per the full note, the expected depreciation of the dollar is attributed to various macroeconomic factors, which could impact investor sentiment and positioning. With current spot levels for EUR/USD at 1.1500, this forecast suggests substantial upside potential, moving against a backdrop of diverging monetary policies between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
Key Takeaways
- 01Morgan Stanley projects a 9% decline in the dollar by mid-2026, estimating EUR/USD at 1.25.
- 02Current spot for EUR/USD is 1.1500, indicating substantive potential gains.
- 03Majority of firms project EUR appreciation towards 1.2000 by Dec-26.
- 04Geopolitical factors and economic performance are key drivers behind the dollar's forecasted weakness.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a pivotal moment for the dollar, asserting that external factors such as geopolitical tensions and domestic economic performance will drive this lengthy devaluation. The specific forecast from Morgan Stanley sets a clear benchmark for market expectations regarding the dollar's trajectory.
Supporting this view, current forecasts from other firms like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs indicate a consensus for EUR/USD to reach around 1.2000 by the end of 2026. This collective perspective underlines a risk-off sentiment regarding the dollar in comparison to the euro, suggesting a broader market alignment towards euro-strengthening dynamics.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus forecast for EUR/USD sees a median target of 1.2000, with firms such as JPMorgan (1.2000), Goldman Sachs (1.2500), and Deutsche Bank (1.2500) projecting levels that resonate with Morgan Stanley's findings but vary slightly in specificity.
The positioning sits at the upper end of the anticipated spread, reflecting a bullish stance on the euro against the dollar as other firms also suggest upward momentum. This consensus indicates a market readiness for stronger euro valuations by 2026, diverging from a potentially weakening dollar narrative.
How other firms see it
Firms like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and MUFG are aligned in their forecasts, suggesting optimism towards EUR/USD strength. In contrast, firms such as Citi and BofA present more conservative views with lower targets, signaling caution around euro appreciation.
As this thesis plays out, the USD/JPY pair is worth monitoring, particularly with Japan's ongoing monetary policy adjustments juxtaposed against the Fed’s tightening, which may add volatility to both pairs. Other influential indicators may include PMI readings and inflation data, which could further inform views on the economic health of both the U.S. and Eurozone.
Market Implications
Traders should focus on achieving and maintaining levels above 1.2000 for EUR/USD to align with the bullish consensus. Potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy or forthcoming economic data could serve as market catalysts to drive shifts in sentiment ahead of any significant announcements.
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
ING | Bullish | 1.1800 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.1800 |
Rabobank | Bullish | 1.1800 |
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Morgan Stanley: Dollar To Lose 9% By Mid-2026, EUR/USD Forecast 1.25 Exchange Rates UK
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