FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
See how the Federal Reserve outlook moves the USD bank consensus across 37 desks
View Federal Reserve outlookFrom the original
Dovish outlier Nomura boosted Fed-hike forecasts for two reasons CNBC
The recent shift by Goldman Sachs to anticipate a second Federal Reserve rate hike as soon as October, abandoning their previous 'one and done' forecast, signals a more hawkish tone across the marketplace. Per the full note from InvestingLive, their expectations follow a more aggressive outlook from Wednesday's FOMC meeting, highlighted by a 16-2 dot plot supporting further hikes and an upward adjustment of the median neutral rate path to 3.25%. This recalibration suggests that other desks may also revise their timelines, enhancing support for both short-end yields and the U.S. dollar as markets price in a higher for longer scenario heading into the midterms. Furthermore, this creates a live meeting risk during a politically sensitive period, challenging previous assumptions about the Fed's timing strategy amidst the elections.