Dutch inflation rises in September, with fuel not the only culprit
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https://think.ing.com/snaps/higher-inflation-in-the-netherlands-in-september-not-only-due-to-fuel/
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4 itemsDutch inflation rises in September, with fuel not the only culprit
Per the full note from ING Think, Dutch HICP inflation accelerated to 3.0% YoY in September from 2.8% in August, with motor fuel prices surging 27.3% YoY as the primary driver. The desk's thesis is that this is not a one-off energy base effect: services inflation, the dominant underlying component, rose to 3.8% YoY and contributed 1.8 percentage points to the headline, while mobile phones and ICT components added a new AI-driven supply-chain impulse. ING explicitly expects inflation to trend higher into the first half of 2027, citing elevated international wholesale prices that have yet to pass through to Dutch consumers. Sitting below the eurozone average of 3.8% YoY provides only temporary cover; the trajectory, not the level, is what matters for the ECB's reaction function. No high-impact Dutch or euro-area events sit on our 30-day calendar, so the next real test is the euro-area flash HICP print, which will determine whether the Netherlands is a leading indicator or an outlier.