E-commerce: A return to the structural growth trajectory
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
BNP Paribas | Bearish | 1.1500 |
UBS | Bullish | 1.1800 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.1800 |
All 30 desk targets for EUR/USD
From the original
Nordea On Your Mind E-commerce: A return to the structural growth trajectory 29-08-2022 Did the Covid-19 pandemic have a lasting impact on the growth of e-commerce and the online migration of retail sales? Will the trend continue? In the latest Nordea On Your Mind, the Thematics
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E-commerce after COVID: It ain’t over till it’s over
The desk interprets the latest insights on e-commerce dynamics post-COVID as indicative of a longer-term structural growth trajectory for online retail, potentially revitalized by demographic trends. Per the full note from Nordea, while there has been a natural easing of the explosive growth witnessed during the pandemic, technologic and demographic shifts suggest that the online share of retail sales will start to recover its growth trend. Current EUR/USD trading at 1.1679 reflects general market sentiments, yet, as multiple firms project gradual appreciation to the 1.20 range by the end of 2026, the outlook remains cautiously bullish.
Pandemic overdrive for e-commerce
The desk interprets the massive surge in e-commerce due to the COVID-19 pandemic as a lasting economic shift, as businesses adapt to new consumer behaviors. Per the full note from Nordea, data indicates that online retail has jumped from approximately 15% to nearly 25% of total retail sales in Nordics—a trend suggesting online sales could capture 30% of the market by 2024. As institutional traders consider the implications on currency pairs, the momentum towards digital retail could influence currencies tied to retail performance and economic resilience, particularly in the Nordics and broader European context.