E-commerce after COVID: It ain’t over till it’s over
At a Glance
The desk interprets the latest insights on e-commerce dynamics post-COVID as indicative of a longer-term structural growth trajectory for online retail, potentially revitalized by demographic trends. Per the full note from Nordea, while there has been a natural easing of the explosive growth witnessed during the pandemic, technologic and demographic shifts suggest that the online share of retail sales will start to recover its growth trend. Current EUR/USD trading at 1.1679 reflects general market sentiments, yet, as multiple firms project gradual appreciation to the 1.20 range by the end of 2026, the outlook remains cautiously bullish.
Key Takeaways
- 01The e-commerce growth trajectory post-COVID remains promising, supported by demographic shifts and new technology adoption.
- 02Current estimates suggest potential recovery and growth trends for retail sales online as highlighted by Nordea's research.
- 03Consensus target for EUR/USD is set at 1.1700 for March 2026, with several firms projecting even higher targets.
- 04The outlook for EUR/USD exhibits a positive relationship with underlying economic recovery themes in e-commerce.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk argues that the shift towards e-commerce is set to resume its structural growth, fueled by a blend of technological advancement and demographic changes. According to Nordea's commentary, the pandemic enhanced technological adoption among consumers, laying the groundwork for sustained future growth in online retail.
Supporting this view, card transaction data analyzed by Nordea suggests that despite recent stabilization, e-commerce retains strong underlying momentum, with a recovery poised to reinvigorate growth trends seen earlier in the pandemic. The view is aligned with forecasts from institutions suggesting EUR/USD may rise to levels as high as 1.20 by the end of 2026.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD places it at 1.1700 for March 2026, with a range spanning from 1.1200 to 1.2000. Notably, firms such as commerzbank and barclays forecast even more bullish positions, with targets sitting at 1.2200 and 1.2100 respectively for the same time frame.
The desk's analysis aligns most closely with deutschebank's forecast of 1.2500 for December 2026, filling the upper bounds of the current consensus while indicating a positive outlook for the euro against the dollar. This intersection of growth expectations between retail and currency suggests a fortified bullish sentiment for EUR/USD, especially as e-commerce recovers post-pandemic.
How other firms see it
Aligned viewpoints can be observed among firms such as commerzbank, barclays, and morganstanley, all projecting upward momentum for EUR/USD. Conversely, citi and bnpparibas reflect a more cautious stance, predicting weaker euro valuation with targets of 1.1300 and 1.0800, respectively.
The trajectory of EUR/USD mirrors overall movements in market sentiment tied to broader economic recovery themes; thus, monitoring the interplay between e-commerce growth and Federal Reserve interest rate policy will be crucial for future positioning.
What the calendar says
There are no high-impact events scheduled in the next 30 days that could influence this dynamic directly, which positions the desk's analysis firmly on qualitative momentum rather than immediate catalysts. However, keeping an eye on broader shifts in central bank policies will be vital moving forward.
Market Implications
Traders should monitor key levels around 1.1700 for EUR/USD as it aligns with expectations for a more prolonged recovery in e-commerce trends. Positioning could change notably if economic indicators reflect stronger-than-expected consumer spending or shifts in central bank policies.
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Bank of America | Bearish | 1.1200 |
ANZ | Bearish | 1.1400 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.1565 |
From the original
Podcast E-commerce after COVID: It ain’t over till it’s over 06-09-2022 Retail sales have been migrating online from stores for years. The pandemic gave a big boost to this migration, which has now eased off. In this Nordea On Your Mind podcast, Johan Trocmé and Viktor Sonebäck t
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4 itemsPandemic overdrive for e-commerce
The desk interprets the massive surge in e-commerce due to the COVID-19 pandemic as a lasting economic shift, as businesses adapt to new consumer behaviors. Per the full note from Nordea, data indicates that online retail has jumped from approximately 15% to nearly 25% of total retail sales in Nordics—a trend suggesting online sales could capture 30% of the market by 2024. As institutional traders consider the implications on currency pairs, the momentum towards digital retail could influence currencies tied to retail performance and economic resilience, particularly in the Nordics and broader European context.
Nordea On Your Mind: E-commerce and corona
The desk posits that the COVID-19 pandemic has catalyzed a significant transformation in global e-commerce, now representing 70% of the retail sector's market cap as noted by Johan Trocmé of Nordea. Per the full note, the surge in online shopping driven by enforced lockdowns has fundamentally altered consumer behavior and business models across the board. This shift serves as a proxy for broader economic recovery narratives as e-commerce success signals robust spending trends in developed markets. Current sentiment and market dynamics point to longevity in this trend, bolstered by accelerated digital adoption across sectors.
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