ECB policymaker Elderson says prolonged war increases likelihood of second-round effects
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Longer war increases likelihood of second-round effects I don't see second-round effects yet The balance of risks has clearly deteriorated ECB's Elderson warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East increases the risk that today's energy-driven inflation shock evolves into
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The desk anticipates a more hawkish stance from the ECB in light of rising energy prices and inflation concerns. Per the full note from Justin Low, ECB policymaker Makhlouf expressed worries that energy prices may remain elevated due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. This situation could lead to cost-push inflation, prompting the ECB to consider 'insurance' rate hikes to maintain credibility and manage inflation expectations. With the consensus target for EUR/USD at 1.075, the market is closely monitoring these developments as they unfold.