ECB President Lagarde welcomes US-Iran peace deal, remains wary of second-round effects

ECB policymaker Makhlouf: I haven't seen second-round effects on inflation emerging

ECB's Lane warns Iran war inflation could persist long after conflict ends

ECB's Muller: The ECB will need a fast resolution on Hormuz to hold in June

The desk interprets the ECB's recent commentary as a signal that the central bank is poised to act if geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, potentially impacting their June rate decision. Per the full note [source], ECB's Muller emphasizes the need for a swift resolution to avoid a rate hike, despite current inflationary pressures. The Eurozone's modest GDP growth of 0.1% in Q1 and declining PMIs suggest underlying economic challenges, reinforcing the ECB's cautious stance. As the market anticipates potential rate hikes, the consensus among analysts remains divided, with some projecting two hikes this year depending on oil price movements and geopolitical developments.

ECB's Villeroy: Iran conflict creates risk to growth and inflation