ECB preview: High bar for the ECB to out-hawk the market; September hike likely if inflation surprises to the upside
From the original
The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged today, while reiterating that it remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the war and that it will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. The central bank will not rele
Related speeches
4 itemsECB preview: a hawkish hold is expected but there's risk of a disappointment
The European Central Bank (ECB) is poised to maintain its policy rate at 2.00% amid a backdrop of rising inflation and mixed economic signals, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward. Per the full note [source], the ECB's forward guidance is expected to remain non-committal, emphasizing a data-dependent stance. Market participants are particularly focused on the press conference for insights into the ECB's reaction function, especially given the recent increase in headline inflation driven by energy prices. The market is currently pricing in 80 basis points of tightening by year-end, with a high probability of a June rate hike, which may lead to disappointment if the ECB adopts a less hawkish tone than anticipated.
ECB preview: forget the rate hike and focus on forward guidance
More like this
5 itemsFed's Daly: Jobs report is good news
BOJ's Ueda: Consumer prices now around 3% and expected to rise further into early next year
BoE's Pill: No repeat of 2022 hiking cycle as growth risks could keep rates on hold
Fed's Williams says US economy remains resilient, appropriate time to gather more information