ECB's Patsalides: Rate hikes in ECB projections don't obligate us
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The passage of time definitely works against us on inflation If higher oil prices persist, inflation risks will rise September decision remains open and data-dependent Second-round effects are not evident, expectations are anchored Rate hikes in ECB projections don't obligate us,
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4 itemsECB policymakers reiterate they are not seeing second-round effects, stress data dependence
Rates Spark: Oil still key to ECB outlook
The desk interprets recent commentary on the ECB as underscoring the critical dependency of future rate hikes on oil prices. With the ECB's latest 25bp hike falling short of market expectations for a more assertive rate path, lower oil prices are seen as a significant dovish influence. Per the full note from ing-think, if oil prices exceed $100 per barrel for an extended period, we could witness multiple rate hikes, with some analysts projecting up to three. However, an unclear outlook on inflation and geopolitical tensions remains pertinent as potential hazards to this forecast.