Economic and event calendar in Asia 15 May 2026 - Fed's Williams is speaking

What the desk is arguing

The desk posits that the Federal Reserve, particularly through the insights of John Williams, is likely to transition from a neutral to a more hawkish stance due to rising inflation. Per the full note source, the recent uptick in inflation metrics necessitates a decisive response from the Fed, which could influence market dynamics significantly.

Recent inflation data has shown a marked increase, prompting speculation that the Fed may need to adjust its policy sooner rather than later. This aligns with the broader market sentiment that anticipates a shift in monetary policy as inflation pressures continue to build.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our consensus target for USD/JPY is 1.075, with a range from 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firms in our coverage include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)

This view aligns closely with jpmorgan, which is positioned at the upper end of the range, while bofa presents a more cautious outlook at the lower end. The desk's call reflects a belief in a stronger dollar as the Fed pivots.

How other firms see it

Firms like jpmorgan and citi are aligned in anticipating a hawkish shift from the Fed, suggesting a bullish outlook on the dollar. Conversely, bofa and hsbc maintain a more bearish stance, reflecting concerns over economic growth.

Key indicators to watch include the upcoming inflation reports and the trajectory of the USD/JPY, which may be influenced by the Fed's policy decisions and market reactions to inflation data.

What the calendar says

With the Fed's Williams speaking today and inflation data on the rise, traders should be alert to potential shifts in sentiment. The upcoming economic indicators will be crucial in shaping expectations ahead of the next Fed meeting.