FX Talking: Forecast table
At a Glance
The desk expresses a bullish outlook on the euro amidst resilient economic data from the Eurozone. This follows the latest forecasts from ING, which indicate a potential upward trajectory for the euro, suggesting that the divergence in monetary policy could continue to favor the single currency. Per the full note , the team highlights that the ECB's hawkish stance may be substantially supported by upcoming inflation data, thereby enhancing the euro's strength against the USD. The consensus target for the EUR/USD is set at 1.075, signaling a moderate but positive trend for the currency pair in the longer term.
Key Takeaways
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk is positioning itself bullishly on the euro, anticipating that resilient economic metrics will bolster the currency's value. Per the full note , EUR is expected to benefit significantly from the central bank's hawkish monetary policy, especially in light of favorable inflation data that could reinforce this outlook.
Supporting this thesis, the ECB's readiness to potentially raise interest rates further than expected aligns with the current projections for the euro's appreciation against the dollar. This aligns with ING's view that market sentiment is tilting in favor of the euro, especially if key data releases this month indicate robust economic performance.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.075, with the following per-firm targets influencing this position:
This bullish perspective is notably at the upper end of the cross-firm forecasts, particularly aligned with jpmorgan. Such positioning suggests confidence in the euro's resilience relative to the dollar in the medium term.
How other firms see it
There is a general consensus among firms like jpmorgan and citibank that the euro will strengthen, while bofa holds a contrary view anticipating downward pressure.
Traders should also keep an eye on the EUR/USD trend, which often mirrors movements in the USD Index and the upcoming ECB statements, as these will be instrumental in shaping currency trajectories alongside their respective monetary policies.
Market Implications
Watch for the EUR/USD moving towards the 1.075 mark as key economic data releases bolster the euro's position. A sustained trend above this level could solidify the bullish sentiment observed in the market.
From the original
Articles FX Talking: Forecast table Published 11:43 FX Talking Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The latest FX forecasts from our team Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole Source: Refinitiv, ING Forecasts "> Source: Refinitiv, ING Forecasts
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The latest FX forecasts from ING suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for the euro, aligned with the expectations of stability from the European Central Bank (ECB). Per the full note from Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole, despite recent volatility, the euro is anticipated to remain supported around 1.075. The desk highlights that ongoing macroeconomic indicators and central bank policy decisions are crucial for this trajectory, as any hint of a more hawkish stance from the ECB could further bolster the euro against the dollar and other currencies. As we look down the road, major market events are currently sparse, leaving room for reaction to minor data shifts.
FX Talking: Dancing in the dark
The desk’s outlook suggests dampened enthusiasm for the dollar amid expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more lenient approach to temporary inflation pressures, limiting the currency's upward trajectory. As communicated in the recent commentary by ing, this perspective lays the groundwork for a strengthening EUR/USD later in the year, particularly as the Fed appraises its policy stance. Current indications point to a stable EUR/USD at 1.1434, which is significantly below the consensus target of 1.1750 for December 2026, underscoring potential upside for the euro.