Global Outlook H2-2025 – The aftershock

What the desk is arguing

The desk argues that H2-2025 will present significant opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in regions like Africa and the Middle East. Per the full note source, Standard Chartered's analysts, Eric Robertsen and Razia Khan, emphasize that despite elevated uncertainty, there are identifiable 'bright spots' in EM assets that could yield attractive returns.

Supporting this view, the commentary suggests that favorable economic indicators and a potential pivot in global trade dynamics could enhance the attractiveness of EM investments. The desk notes that the current positioning in the FX market reflects a growing appetite for riskier assets, which could further bolster EM currencies.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our consensus target for the EUR/USD stands at 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) - citi: 1.08 (Mar26)

This view aligns closely with jpmorgan, which is positioned at the upper end of the consensus range, while bofa presents a more cautious stance at the lower end. The desk's call reflects a balanced outlook, leaning towards the potential for appreciation in the euro against the dollar.

How other firms see it

Firms like jpmorgan and citi share a similar optimistic outlook on EM assets, suggesting a consensus on the potential for growth in these markets. In contrast, bofa maintains a more conservative view, indicating concerns over global economic stability and its impact on EM currencies.

Key currency pairs to monitor include EUR/USD, which is influenced by the ECB's monetary policy, and USD/JPY, as shifts in US interest rates could have significant spillover effects on these markets.

What the calendar says

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