Global Outlook 2026 – An uneasy calm
At a Glance
The desk anticipates that emerging growth drivers will create an uneasy calm in global markets leading into 2026, as highlighted by Standard Chartered's recent analysis. Per the full note source, the interplay of geopolitical tensions, shifts in monetary policy, and evolving consumer behavior will shape both developed and emerging market asset classes. With the potential for volatility stemming from these factors, traders should remain vigilant. The consensus target for the EUR/USD pair is currently set at 1.075, with a range reflecting diverging views among major banks.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that the global economic landscape will be influenced by new growth drivers, including technological advancements and demographic shifts, which may lead to an 'uneasy calm' in markets as they adjust. Per the full note source, these dynamics could result in both opportunities and risks for traders, particularly in the foreign exchange space.
Key evidence supporting this view includes projections of moderate GDP growth in both developed and emerging markets, which Standard Chartered estimates will hover around 3% annually through 2026. This growth, however, is tempered by potential geopolitical disruptions and inflationary pressures that could impact central bank policies.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for the EUR/USD pair is 1.075, with a range from 1.04 to 1.12. Specific targets from other firms include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan, which is positioned at the higher end of the range, while bofa represents a more cautious stance at the lower bound, indicating a divergence in outlook among major players.
How other firms see it
Aligned firms like jpmorgan and citi share a bullish outlook on the EUR/USD, anticipating a gradual recovery supported by easing inflation. Conversely, bofa and hsbc maintain a bearish perspective, citing persistent inflation risks and potential central bank tightening as key concerns.
Watch the EUR/USD closely as it reflects broader trends influenced by the ECB's monetary policy and the Fed's interest rate decisions, particularly as they relate to inflation indicators and employment data.
What the calendar says
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From the original
What are the new growth drivers shaping the outlook for 2026? Standard Chartered’s Eric Robertsen, Global Head of Research and Chief Strategist; Razia Khan, Head of Research, Africa and Middle East; and Divya Devesh, Co-head of FX Research, ASEAN and South Asia, address this ques
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