Goldman Sachs Euro To Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Ceiling Remains At 1.25 - Exchange Rates Org UK

What the desk is arguing

Goldman Sachs' forecast indicates a firm ceiling for EUR/USD at 1.25, suggesting significant resistance in reaching or surpassing this level. This forecast highlights concerns about the euro's performance against the dollar, reflecting underlying economic factors that may limit potential gains.

Recent consensus targets among various firms also support Goldman’s positioning, though there remains some divergence in expectations regarding the euro's growth trajectory. The overall sentiment suggests that while some optimism exists, external variables could hinder sustained progress beyond the identified ceiling.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our current consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.2200 based on median forecasts, reflecting a range where firms predict the pair will gravitate in the medium term. This median is in line with Goldman’s targets for Mar 2026 (1.1800) and Dec 2026 (1.2500), suggesting a convergence toward more optimistic positions toward the end of 2026.

• JPMorgan: Dec 2026 target of 1.2000
• Goldman: Dec 2026 target of 1.2500
• Deutsche Bank: Dec 2026 target of 1.2500

How other firms see it

Other firms largely echo Goldman’s cautious outlook, but there are slight variations in forecast ceilings. Notably, MorganStanley anticipates a maximum of 1.2300 by June 2026, indicating a more optimistic short-term view yet still below Goldman's ceiling.

• MUFJ: Mar 26 target 1.1800, Dec 26 target 1.2400
• Barclays: Mar 26 target 1.1700, Dec 26 target 1.2100
• BofA: Mar 26 target 1.1700, Dec 26 target 1.2200