Goldman: Warsh’s quieter Fed: why less guidance could mean more market volatility
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Rabobank | Bearish | 1.1000 |
ING | Bullish | 1.1300 |
MUFG | Neutral | 1.1200 |
From the original
Less forward guidance shifts the burden onto data, which points to bigger moves in short-dated Treasuries, the dollar and rate-sensitive equities around key releases, as this week’s CPI reaction showed. Bond volatility may stay elevated even if the eventual Fed path matches the c
Related speeches
4 itemsUBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Precisely'
The current discussion centers on the Federal Reserve's reluctance to provide explicit forward guidance, as noted in Paul Donovan's recent commentary, which highlights Chair Warsh's cautious stance on increasing rates. This suggests a broader trend within the Fed where any hawkish signals are downplayed to avoid market volatility, complicating the central bank's task amid inflationary pressures. Per the full note [source], these sentiments resonate with various Fed officials, indicating that current consumer spending patterns may be more resilient than they seem, yet the underlying data presents complexities. The desk sees this dynamic as critical for shaping trader sentiment and positioning in the upcoming weeks.
Fed's Waller and Warsh diverge over role of forward guidance. Public split at the Fed?
More like this
5 itemsFed's Daly: Jobs report is good news
BOJ's Ueda: Consumer prices now around 3% and expected to rise further into early next year
BoE's Pill: No repeat of 2022 hiking cycle as growth risks could keep rates on hold
Fed's Williams says US economy remains resilient, appropriate time to gather more information