How should I be positioned? with Torsten Slok (Apollo) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
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Torsten rejoins Jason to exchange thoughts on the health and direction of the U.S. economy, the road ahead for monetary policy (along with the implications of new Fed leadership), AI disruption, and overall market risk considerations. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Alloc
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4 itemsHow should I be positioned? with Jon Cheigh (Cohen & Steers) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
Lead — 4-6 sentences. The current geopolitical climate, particularly the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, has led to a cautious investment outlook for 2026 despite a stable long-term view, as stated by Jon Cheigh and Jason Draho. The desk interprets this stance as indicative that while immediate risks are acknowledged, the broader growth expectations remain intact. Per the full note [source], there is cautious optimism about growth, which may not align with market volatility in the near term. This sets the stage for potential shifts in FX positioning as traders navigate through these uncertain waters while eyeing central bank signals.
How should I be positioned? with Joe Davis (Vanguard) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
The desk's thesis centers on the implications of rising geopolitical tensions in the context of the U.S.-Iran conflict, which could meaningfully impact economic stability and asset allocation decisions. Per the full note [source], Vanguard's Joe Davis highlighted concerns about fluctuating oil prices, indicating that a sustained spike past $150 per barrel would challenge corporate profitability and broader market outlook. This perspective aligns with a growing wariness among investors about the fallout from geopolitical strife particularly affecting commodities. Given the current backdrop, the market remains sensitive to price movements in oil, with traders closely monitoring any significant geopolitical developments.
Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Adam Bloch (Guggenheim) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)
The desk is interpreting the recent evolution of the fixed income landscape as a complex interplay between macroeconomic uncertainty and evolving monetary policy. Per the full note from UBS, notable figures such as the rise in 10-year Treasury yields from 3.94% to as high as 4.48% during regional conflicts illustrates market volatility that has implications for risk assets and fixed income strategies. Recent market behavior, including equity markets reaching new highs following a ceasefire in early April, suggests that risk-on sentiment is influencing investors' outlook toward credit spreads and yields.
Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Clayton Triick (Angel Oak) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)
The desk argues Agency RMBS and the housing market are well-positioned as the Fed pivots from rate-cut fears to inflation vigilance, with the 10-year yield rising ~50bp from 3.94% in late February. Per the full note [source], this shift has repriced fixed-income assets, making agency mortgages an attractive diversifier in a higher-for-longer rate environment. The synthesis sees near-term value in MBS but warns that geopolitical whipsaw could tighten spreads. No consensus target is tracked as no FX pair is cited.
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